Corn and soybean prices continued to sink throughout the week after USDA’s August WASDE report threw out some surprising yield and carryout estimates. USDA is now forecasting a national corn yield of 183.1 bu. per acre. Production is forecast at 15.1 billion bushels.
“I’m not really surprised. It was a little bit higher than what ours [StoneX Group] was, but when you look at July weather, it would certainly support that type of a trend or a higher yield,” said Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist with StoneX Group.
He says so far, weather in August has been ideal for crop production. But Suderman points out the question isn’t what the yield potential is, it’s more a question of how much production has the U.S. lost in some of the problem areas?
“Based on the problems that we had back in June with record rainfall in northwestern Midwest, and how the positives and negatives add up to each other for the total crop, because in the end, it’s the total crop that really matters,” Suderman said.
The state-by-state breakdowns of yield changes year-over-year also tell the story best. While there are problem spots, like North Carolina where the state corn yield is estimated to be down 32% compared to last year due to drought this year, the “I States” are sitting on what’s believed to be larger crops than last year.
One of the biggest changes is Illinois. USDA forecasts Illinois’ state-wide yield to hit 225 bu. per acre, which would be up 9 percent compared to last year.
“I don’t to say it’s not possible, but that is a lot of bushels when you think of every acre getting to 225 per bushel, where their previous all-time record is 214. It seems like a really lofty goal,” said Darren Frye, Water Street Solutions.
Frye says he knows grain fill across the Corn Belt will be big this year, as the cooler temperatures that much of the Midwest as experienced is what will add to the kernel depth.
“What I’m most interested to see when Pro Farmer gets out there on their tour is just how this crop compares to other years as far as kernel counts and population, because I think our grain fill will be superior to most other years, and that could add a lot of bushels,” Frye said.
Suderman says he’s also watching Pro Farmer’s Crop Tour closely starting on Monday, as in order to achieve USDA’s current forecast of record yields, there are a few key things he wants to see as scouts actually get into the field to measure this crop’s potential.
“I’m looking for that consistency through the fields: consistency of stands, consistency of ears. Are there any tip back problems? But mostly, kernel size is the big question I think this year. And that’s hard to tell just looking at it, but kernel size is going to be the main driver with this August weather,” Suderman said.
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For more than 30 years, Pro Farmer Crop Tour scouts have been providing the agriculture industry with insights into potential corn and soybean production, gathering scout reports from 2,000+ fields across Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Ohio and South Dakota.
This year’s event takes place August 19-22, 2024. Register now to attend in-person or watch results live each night at 8pm Central Time.
