Freeze damage this past weekend likely impacted corn and soybeans differently, but analysts believe true yield reports will not be available until January
Alan Suderman of INTL FCStone estimates soybean yield losses between 30 million to 50 million bu. and corn yield losses between 300 million to 400 million bu. However, corn yield losses could rise as high as 600 million to 700 million bu.
“We will just have to see how accurate USDA’s maturity numbers were,” Suderman said. “How deeply did cold move into the Midwest and into these immature fields?”
Soybeans may have lower yield losses than corn because sensitivity to day length caused them to rush to maturity.
Dan O’Brien of Kansas State University added ear weight and number of pods will be key factors in estimating yields.
“We’ll probably have to get to the January report to where we finally can reconcile things with the stocks report to back up the numbers,” O’Brien said.
Suderman said he looks to 2009 as an example for 2019. Farmers harvesting wet crops in 2009 took fewer bushels out of bins due to shrink.
“Plus, lower starch content takes a lot more bushels to feed the livestock and to make the ethanol, so usage was up as well.” Suderman said of 2009. “We didn’t know until June 30.”
O’Brien acknowledged uncertainty adds difficulty for farmers.
“How do farmers market this year?” O’Brien asked. “They’re hearing us and other analysts say, ‘Gosh, we may not know until January.’”
Related articles
What to do When Grain is Too Wet or Too Dry
Ferrie: Why You Need To Harvest Green Corn Now
There’s a Little Mystery to This Year’s Late Planted Corn
