John’s World: 2018 Carryover Isn’t Just in Our Grain Bins

The moment soon approaches when we will mount up and do our thing in the fields. Only this year, our enthusiasm is somewhat dampened by the mental and agronomic scars from the harvest last fall. John Phipps explains.

As planting season nears for many, farmers' enthusiasm is somewhat dampened by the mental and agronomic scars from the harvest last fall.
As planting season nears for many, farmers’ enthusiasm is somewhat dampened by the mental and agronomic scars from the harvest last fall.
(Farm Journal )

The moment soon approaches when we will mount up and do our thing in the fields. Only this year, our enthusiasm is somewhat dampened by the mental and agronomic scars from the harvest last fall. The persistent rain and snow, the winds and fragile stalks, and the date on the calendar all conspired to force too many of us to commit acts of desperation we knew we would regret this spring.

We were right. While there is still time to cope with ruts and incomplete tillage – if any at all, we haven’t exactly seen a warm, dry early spring needed for field rehab. I’ve been through a handful of bad falls and tough springs, but it has been a while, and I have to admit the larger, more powerful machinery now at our command has the unfortunate disadvantage of being able to make truly monumental scars on the land under the conditions we saw last fall.

Moreover, at least on ground like ours, where drainage is a constant battle, the compaction in the trenches cut last fall pretty much makes drying from the top the only way these places are going to become workable. So unless we see warm temperatures with low humidity, brisk winds and clear skies, forecasts tend to disappoint.

We’ll eventually get the surface smoothed over like thick icing on an ugly cake, but my experience is yield maps will reflect the Ghosts of Harvest 18 for several years to come. Last year was the most frustrating harvest I have seen around here, and its memory will remain a voice of urgency in our heads for the next few falls, regardless of weather and soil conditions.

The carryover from 2018 is not just piled in our bins, it’s staring us in the face in our fields.

AgWeb-Logo crop
Related Stories
Iowa State research reveals PI 88788 resistance is losing effectiveness at 2% per year, with yield losses potentially reaching 9 bushels per acre by decade’s end if management practices are unchanged.
NASDA and the National Agricultural Law Center say a new project tracking both Chapter 11 and Chapter 12 filings offers a more complete view of agricultural bankruptcies — with California, Arkansas, Georgia and Iowa leading the initial dataset.
New research builds on growing state and federal scrutiny by asking what these laws could mean for land prices and productivity.
Read Next
Red crown rot is now active in at least eight Midwest states. The significance of the disease is building. The Crop Protection Network estimates 7.7 million bushels of soybeans were lost in 2025 versus 121,000 bushels in 2024.
Get News Daily
Get Market Alerts
Get News & Markets App