Canada’s 2017 wheat crop is likely down just 14.5% versus the year prior at 27.1 MMT, according to survey data from Statistics Canada (StatsCan) that was based in part on satelite and agroclimate data. This would be an increase from its Aug. 31 crop estimate of 26.5 MMT. StatsCan detailed that dry conditions in the south-central Prairies took a toll on wheat yields. Pro Farmer Canada Editor Mike Jubinville says he suspects “the final all-wheat number will grow further in subsequent reports.”
The survey pegged Canada’s canola crop at a record 19.7 MMT, up 0.5% from 2016 and 1.5 MMT above StatsCan’s August estimate. Canada’s soybean crop is also expected to be record-large at 8.3 MMT, according to the survey.
Also of note, Jubinville notes that “it seems StatCan would ultimately like to replace farmer-survey methodology with this model, but only when confidence that accuracy in this system has been obtained.” But he is “doubtful” that will occur, explaining that a a more likely scenario is that the model-based survey compliments the farmer survey since “many yield-influencing variables exist that cannot be properly captured without a survey.”
