Market reaction
Ahead of USDA’s reports, corn futures were trading 7 to 8 cents higher, soybeans were narrowly mixed, wheat futures were 19 to 25 cents higher and cotton futures were 15 to 20 points higher.
Following the reports, corn futures are 4 to 5 cents higher, soybeans are 22 to 25 cents higher, winter wheat futures are 22 to 25 cents higher, spring wheat futures are 35 to 38 cents higher and cotton futures are 70 to 80 points higher.
Pro Farmer Editor Brian Grete has more highlights:
Acreage Report
Corn: 90.886 mil. acres; trade expected 89.903 mil. acres
-- compares to 89.996 mil. acres in March; 94.004 mil. acres in 2016
Soybeans: 89.513 mil. acres; traders expected 89.750 mil. acres
-- compares to 89.482 mil. acres in March; 83.433 mil. acres in 2016
All wheat: 45.657 mil. acres; traders expected 46.070 mil. acres
-- compares to 46.059 mil. acres in March; 50.154 mil. acres in 2016
Spring wheat: 10.899 mil. acres; traders expected 11.206 mil. acres
-- compares to 11.308 mil. acres in March; 11.605 mil. acres in 2016
Durum wheat: 1.919 mil. acres; traders expected 2.002 mil. acres
-- compares to 2.004 mil. acres in March; 2.412 mil. acres in 2016
Cotton: 12.055 mil. acres; traders expected 12.278 mil. acres
-- compares to 12.233 mil. acres in March; 10.075 mil. acres in 2016
Don’t forget the question that’s asked for the June 1 Acreage Report: Acres planted and intended to plant? Corn acreage may have still included some planting intentions on June 1. Also, the combined corn and soybean acreage tally is up 921,000 acres from March intentions at 180.399 million acres. That’s likely the result of lower-than-expected prevent-plant acres in North Dakota. (North Dakota had a 700,000-acre increase in combined corn and soybean plantings.)
Corn acres are up 890,000 acres from March intentions. Comparing state corn acreage totals to the Prospective Plantings report in March, corn plantings are up in Iowa (up 200,000, to 13.5 million), Kansas (100,000, to 5.3 million), Michigan (200,000, to 2.5 million), Nebraska (250,000, to 9.8 million), North Dakota (400,000, to 3.7 million) and Wisconsin (up 50,000, to 4.05 million). Compared to intentions, acres are steady in Minnesota (8 million) and Missouri (3.25 million). Acreage reductions were estimated in Illinois (down 200,000, to 11.1 million), Indiana (100,000, 5.5 million), Ohio (down 50,000, 3.5 million), South Dakota (200,000, to 5.2 million) and Texas (down 50,000, to 2.4 million acres).
Bean acres are up 31,000 acres from March intentions. Comparing state bean acreage totals to the Prospective Plantings report, bean plantings are up in Arkansas (50,000, to 3.55 million), Illinois (200,000, to 10.4 million), Missouri (up 350,000, to 6.0 million) and North Dakota (300,000, to 7.2 million). Acres held steady with March intentions in Nebraska (5.7 million), Ohio (5.0 million), South Dakota (5.4 million) and Wisconsin (2.15 million acres). Acreage reduction from March intentions were noted in Indiana (down 100,000, to 5.9 million), Iowa 100,000, to 10.0 million), Kansas (250,000, to 4.75 million), Michigan (50,000, 2.3 million) and Minnesota (down 50,000, to 8.2 million).
All wheat planted acres are down 402,000 from March intentions. USDA also projects an all-wheat harvested acreage of 38.115 (down 385,000 acres from the June S&D Report) -- a harvested acreage percentage of 83.5%. Winter wheat harvested acres are projected at 25.760 million for a harvested acreage percentage of 78.4%. Spring wheat harvested acres are projected at 10.497 million -- that’s a 96.3% harvested acreage percentage. That’s high... potentially way too high. Spring wheat harvested acres are likely headed lower in upcoming production reports. Durum wheat harvested acres are projected at 1.858 million -- a 96.8% harvested acreage percentage.
Cotton planted acres are down 178,000 from March intentions. Texas cotton plantings were down 300,000 acres from March intentions and Georgia’s cotton plantings are up 50,000 from March.
Quarterly Grain Stocks Report
Corn: 5.225 billion bu.; traders expected 5.123 billion bu.
-- compares to 8.616 bil. bu. March 1 and 4.711 bil. bu. June 1, 2016
Soybeans: 963 million bu.; traders expected 983 million bu.
-- compares to 1.735 bil. bu. March 1 and 872 mil. bu. June 1, 2016
Wheat: 1.184 billion bu.; traders expected 1.137 billion bu.
-- compares to 1.655 bil. bu. March 1 and 976 mil. bu. June 1, 2016
Corn stocks in all positions on June 1 were up 11% from year-ago. Of the total, 2.84 billion bu. are stored on farms, up 15% from year-ago, and off-farm stocks totaled 2.38 billion bu., up 6% from last year. Indicated disappearance in the third quarter of the 2016-17 marketing year is 3.4 billion bu., up 9.3% from year-ago. Still, corn stocks came in about 100 million bu. above pre-report trade expectations, resulting in an immediate negative reaction in corn futures.
Soybean stocks in all positions on June 1 were up 11% from last year. On-farm stocks totaled 333 million bu., up 18% from year-ago, and off-farm stocks totaled 631 million bu., up 7% from last year. Implied disappearance in the third-quarter of the marketing year totaled 775 million bu., up 18% from the same quarter last year. Stocks came in 20 million bu. below the average trade guess, adding support to the positive price reaction in soybean futures.
Wheat stocks in all positions on June 1 were up 21% from year-ago. On-farm stocks of 192 million bu. were down 3% from last year and off-farm stocks of 993 million bushels were up 28% from last year. Disappearance in the final quarter of the 2016-17 marketing year totaled 472 million bu., up 19% from the same period last year. Stocks were 47 million bu. above the average pre-report trade estimate.
