Compare and Contrast: Acreage Predictions Roll In

Spring is officially here – and planting intentions are all the buzz. As acreage predictions roll in, it’s interesting to compare and contrast, ahead of USDA’s March 31 Prospective Plantings report.

Corn Acres Will Edge Out Soybeans

In light of solid commodity prices, AgMarket.Net says everyone wants the acres this year.

“Given corn and soybean acres were around 180 million combined during 2021, we think the high prices can keep total acres close to or over that same amount,” says Matt Bennett, AgMarket.Net co-founder.

He says it’s AgMarket.Net’s opinion soybean acres will be much closer to corn than what farmers saw in 2021 due to excessively high fertilizer costs and excellent soybean prices.

“However, we feel corn acres will remain higher than soybean acres due to such a strong spring insurance price,” Bennett says. “Plus, December corn is trading well above the $5.90 spring average as we approach planting.”

The company says they anticipate wheat acres will have an increase of more than 2 million acres, while surveys indicate cotton acres will also increase to potentially a half-million to a million acres. 

For additional perspective from Bennett, watch this "AgDay" segment:  

Acreage Projections Uncertain With Higher Costs

Over the next decade, the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) at the University of Missouri forecasts average acreage for major crops will remain fairly steady. However, U.S. crop acreage prospects are “unusually uncertain in 2022.”

Higher commodity prices encourage planting, but higher costs and reduced availability of major inputs have the opposite effect. Projections based on January information suggest a slight uptick in acreage for the major field crops, but recent developments, the weather and other factors could still alter the crop mix.

Corn Acres Down, Soybean Acres Up But Combine, Acres Will Decline

Results of the Pro Farmer/Doane planting intentions survey signaled corn acres will decline and soybean acres will increase this year. Surprisingly, though, the survey showed combined corn and soybean acres would decline 900,000 acres from last year to 179.7 million acres, with soybean acres not expected to rise as much as we previously projected. Pro Farmer/Doane forecast total acres planted to the big four crops (corn, soybeans, wheat and cotton) will rise 1.7 million acres from last year to 240.2 million acres.

As expected, farmers across the I-80 corridor indicated no change in combined corn and soybean acres while farmers in North Dakota, Minnesota, Wisconsin and Michigan noted fewer combined acres of corn and soybeans. Spring wheat is likely to take away some acres from corn and soybeans in North Dakota and Minnesota. Cotton is also likely to “steal” some acres in the Delta.