The Winter That Wasn’t: Drought Plagues the Plains, Plants Worries About 2021 Crop

A late winter storm barreled across the West this past weekend, a storm that left 4-foot snowdrifts at one Colorado dairy.

Just to the north and east, farmers saw flooded fields and swamped pastures. One weekend brought more moisture than some areas saw the entire past year, a stark contrast from the winter that wasn’t.

“If you can say 180-degree turnaround, that doesn’t seem to describe it properly,” says Russ Johnson, a farmer south of Grand Forks, North Dakota.

When we visited the Johnsons a year ago, the scene was full of snow-covered fields and unharvested corn. With several feet of snow piled on the ground, some combines were even harvesting the 2019 crop last March. But today, that story has changed.

“The problem we’re going to run into right now is we need moisture bad,” he says. “It is so dry out there. Last year we were wondering what we’re going to do with all the moisture. And now we’re wondering where it is. So, what 12 months can do—Wow, it has really turned around.”

No snow on the ground, combined with mild temperatures, means fall fieldwork wasn’t an issue.

“The last time we’ve had this much fieldwork done is quite a few years ago,” says Johnson. “You have to go back to 2012 or 2013, somewhere in there. That was more normal, and the last time we got fieldwork done in the fall.

Desperate for Moisture

Dryness is planting some concerns for North Dakota farmers and climatologists.

“Some parts of North Dakota are over 30 inches in deficit with the snowfall,” says Eric Snodgrass, principal atmospheric scientist for Nutrien Ag Solutions.

Snodgrass told Top Producer Summit attendees that North Dakota farmers need more than just normal spring rains.

“You need 200% of your normal spring rain to undo this drought,” he says. “And by the way, it needs to soak in. So, when I say you need 200%, that would be 200% of rainfall getting there on unfrozen soil.”

USDA meteorologist Brad Rippey says North Dakota just experienced its driest September to February period on record. With less 1.85” of snow, this winter beat out 1952-1953 and 1897-1898, with both winters receiving just over 2” of moisture.

Unique Drought

While North Dakota is dry, that state isn’t alone, meteorologists call the drought situation today unique.

“It is unique in its depth and breadth,” says Drew Lerner of World Weather, Inc.

A unique drought that spans from Canada down to Mexico.

“It is really serious, and we have to break it down in these next few weeks in order to prevent a major ridge of high pressure from evolving in the middle of North America,” says Lerner. “That could of course, if it does evolve, have influence on the Plains and the western corn belt during our summer season. So, this is a big deal.”

While weather this week is helping bring moisture to portions of the Plains, Snodgrass says you have to go back a couple decades to see a drought scenario similar to this year.

“What I mean by that is the drought monitor has been around since the year 2000. And over those last 21 years, we’ve never seen a drought situation looking like this,” he says. “Now, this is just over the last 20 years, looking quite like this going through February. This extensive drought in the northern Plains, we can see exceptional drought in the four corner states, practically very, very little drought, once you get into the eastern half of the United States. “

As drought continues to grip the West, Lerner says La Niña is partially to blame. But that’s not all.

“The problem right now continues to be a rather broad-based dry pattern that is associated with an upper air wind flow pattern that certainly is not very supportive of bringing in significant amounts of moisture to those northern latitudes,” says Lerner.

While the U.S. is dry, drought continues to plague North America. Lerner says conditions in the Canadian Prairies are particularly dry.

“It is chronically dry and goes down very deep. I talked to a Canadian farmer a couple of weeks ago and they were digging out in the in the field and he said he went 20 feet down without seeing any moisture,” Lerner says.

Winter Wheat Worries

The lack of snow cover this winter may prove to be damaging to the winter wheat.

“That was an area that through the entirety of this cold air outbreak did not have snow on the ground, and therefore, the temperatures penetrated deep into the ground, sending some freezing air down at least three to four feet, if not even deeper in that particular area,” says Snodgrass.

It also caused the wheat crop to be behind in growth in areas like South Dakota.

“I’m starting to wonder if the lack of growth last fall actually saved that crop, because talking to producers now in the central part of the state where our main winter wheat belt is, most of them said their wheat looks pretty good. And it survived,” says Jonathan Kleinjan, South Dakota State University extension crop production specialist.

Early Planting Potential

And as farmers turn their focus to spring, some are eager to make the first pass.

“This week, north of us about 30 miles, somebody went out and planted a wheat field,” says Johnson. “One other time I’ve heard of some farmers going out in March and getting some spring wheat in.”

Johnson says while he’s not ready to plant yet, planting in 2021 could come soon.

“It’ll definitely be early,” he says.

As drier conditions are lending to more favorable planting progress this year.

“I like the look of it,” says Johnson. “We’re going to just rely on the big guy upstairs to give us timely rains. And I think there’s still some deep subsoil moisture, but we’re going to need moisture to get the crops going.