Soybean prices turned higher this week, much of that driven by forecasts for hot and dry weather the final two weeks of August.

“Out meteorologists will group says that there may be some moisture in September, but it's going to be hot, and it's going to be dry, and it's going to be really hot next week during crop tour,” says Pete Meyer of S&P Global Commodity Insights.

Corn prices were under pressure at the start of the week, but Meyer thinks that was due to FSA data released last Friday.

“The FSA data is your certified acres that was released about an hour after the crop production from USDA last Friday,” says Meyer. “And, as is typical in August, there's 1,000 different interpretations of the FSA data and what that means to corn soybean acres.”

Jarod Creed of JC Marketing Services says if you interpret the data today, it appears U.S. farmers planted a lot more corn acres than expected.

“At point in time, I think there's a fairly reasonable expectation that you'll see corn acres expand to possibly a half million acres higher, and soybeans maybe flat to just a very small modest increase,” says Creed. “But as in regards to chatter in our corn market, it’s the fact that we’re not really needing additional corn acres at this moment. And perhaps that's just one more negative connotation that the corn market has to put up with at this point.”

Both Creed and Meyer will be scouts on Pro Farmer Crop Tour next week. Creed says the goal is to not go in with any expectations or opinions about the crop.

“I do believe that the trade will be watching for any type of significant or expanded area of crop damage that possibly has taken place back in July, that has been missed from just driving down road looking what fields appear to be from the road,” says Creed. “Like Pete said, on the soybean side, so much of the verdict is out on yield yet over the next coming weeks. But on the corn side, I think there is risk that certain areas have already had irreversible damage take place. So maybe what you're looking for in general is how widespread is that damage? Or how minimal is that damage?”

Meyer says the biggest area he’ll be watching on Pro Farmer Crop Tour is central Indiana this year.

“I mean, I think that Ohio and Indiana kind of the verdict is supposed to be in. I don't think the verdict is in for Central Illinois, as far south as Decatur, and maybe even as far north as Dekalb.  I mean,  maybe just take the whole spine of the state, and you have to wonder with what we've seen as the spotty showers throughout the year. There's been a lot of hit and miss,” says Meyer.

According to USDA’s August Crop Production report, USDA-NASS made cuts to the national yield estimate.

• Corn yield: 175.1 bu. per acre vs. 177 bu. per acre in July
• Soybean yield: 50.9 bu. per acre vs. 52 bu. per acre in July
• Wheat yield: 45.8 bu. per acre vs. 46.1 bu. per acre in July

Meyer says he thinks USDA is a touch too low on their current yield estimates. 

"And we're kind of edging that number up a little bit. I think this week, we're probably around 51 and a half crop toward data probably won't influence our yield estimates," says Meyer. 

Countdown to Pro Farmer Crop Tour is On

As the yield debate in the U.S. continues, the Pro Farmer Crop Tour is set to ground truth yield estimates, uncovering yield estimates and the crop potential in the field.  The tour kicks off Monday, August 21 in Ohio and South Dakota.  Pro Farmer says the goal of the tour is to get a strong objective view of corn yield potential across the Corn Belt during the third full week of August. 

While scouts will search fields during the day, nightly meetings give farmers the unique opportunity to hear those results first-hand. Below is a schedule of the nightly meetings, and you can attend by registering here:  Click here to register.

2023 IN-PERSON CROP TOUR MEETINGS

WESTERN TOUR
Grand Island, Neb.
Monday, Aug. 21
Riverside Golf Club  | 2820 Riverside Drive  |  Grand Island, NE 68801
 
Nebraska City, Neb.
Tuesday, Aug. 22
Lied Lodge and Conference Center  |  2700 Sylvan Road  |  Nebraska City, NE 68410
 
Spencer, Iowa
Wednesday, Aug. 23
Clay County Fair and Events Center  |  800 West 18th Street  | Spencer, IA 51301

EASTERN TOUR
Noblesville, Ind.
Monday, Aug. 21
Embassy Suites Noblesville  |  13700 Conference Center Drive S.  |  Noblesville, IN 46060
 
Bloomington, Ill.
Tuesday, Aug. 22  
DoubleTree by Hilton  |  10 Brickyard Drive  |  Bloomington, IL 61701
 
Iowa City, Iowa
Wednesday, Aug. 23  
Hyatt Regency Coralville  |  300 East 9th Street  |  Coralville, IA 52241

FINALE
Thursday, Aug. 24
Rochester, Minn.
Mayo Civic Center  |  30 Civic Center Drive SE  |  Rochester, MN 55902

Click here to register.