Wheat futures have drifted lower since the start of October, but even with prices are more than $1 above where they were in July. And as higher prices are attracting more attention, Texas A&M AgriLife Extension Service expects winter wheat acres to increase this year.
Those added acres could come in more than just areas like Texas this year.
“I think winter wheat acres are going to be up, especially where the rain is now heading in the Southern Plains,” DuWayne Bosse of Bolt Marketing told AgDay’s Clinton Griffiths. “That’s going to help guys to to give them that confidence that, ‘Okay, I’m not going to waste my money and seed by planting it out there.”
Bosse says winter wheat seedings could also increase in the Eastern Corn Belt this year.
“When we get to next spring, I think the spring when acres are going to be up a little bit, too,” he adds. “You start talking $8 plus on the board, and farmers are going to like that.”
Bosse says even with the potential for higher prices heading into next year, he’s encouraging producers to explore hedging a portion of their wheat crop now.
“We haven’t seen prices like this - a year in advance - in a long, long time,” adds Bosse. “So, we’re pushing farmers to get some sales on that 15% to 25%. If that’s the worst price of spring wheat, then we’re really talking bullish markets next year.”
Russia continues to be a moving target for both exports and production. According to Reuters, Russian wheat export prices ticked higher for for a 13th consecutive week. According to the report, limited supply and a stronger rouble impacted prices in Russia. There’s also discussion of Russia implementing export quotas, which Bosse says is a factor also helping wheat prices, and then wheat acres, for next year.
WASDE Report Tuesday
USDA will release its updated look at world supply and demand on Tuesday. In the September stocks report, USDA showed tighter stocks numbers, signaling smaller carryover this year.
“I look for the stocks to continue to decrease,” Bosse told Griffiths. “I look for Canada’s crop to continue to decrease in size and then next year it will be all about weather. Now, we have to be careful that we don’t price ourselves out of all the export market, but it’s fun, and for the first time in a long time, there’s a bullish outlook for wheat.”
