Data released by Statistics Canada this morning reveals that canola stocks tightened to 608,100 MT at the end of July, which came in below traders’ expectations. Wheat stocks of 5.1 MMT were near expectations.
The report notes that canola stocks were significantly lower than the five-year average of 1.5 million tonnes. The decrease was mostly the result of a 24.3% drop in commercial stocks, but on-farm stocks were up 19.0% from year-ago.
The report notes the decline in wheat stocks was mainly due to a sharper-than-expected drop in commercial stocks.
Pro Farmer Canada editor Mike Jubinville reminds this morning’s report serves simply as a snapshot of the past and sets carryin for the new marketing year. “It sheds only minor influence to price determination in the current grain market as there currently are several more important market-moving variables at work (such as) weather in the U.S. and big crops here.”
Specficially for canola, Jubinville says, “Any year-end stock estimate under 1 MMT is considered tight. But with a record large 2013 canola crop now coming on line (16 MMT?), the small carryin from last year is no longer a big issue. The market focus at this time of year is entirely on the upcoming crop and as long as it is as big as it’s purported to be, last year numbers will be seen as old news.”
