The nation’s spring wheat crop got off to one of the worst starts in 37 years with an initial rating of 45% good to excellent.
While conditions improved this week to 50%, there are still production issues that may not heal with the hot, dry extended forecast.
North Dakota Crop Sees Weather Extremes
Initial ratings for top producer, North Dakota, were just 37% good to excellent. That improved 11% this week, but is well under last year.
Randy Martinson, Martinson Ag, Fargo, North Dakota says, “The spring wheat conditions came in, below 50%, some of the lowest we’ve seen in years on the first look at with the crop and almost over 20% lower than anticipated by the trade. So, nobody was anticipating to see the spring wheat conditions come in that low.”
He says North Dakota’s crop has been plagued by various weather extremes.
“The cold temperatures, the late plantings, I think all of that and then you know those five days of 90 degree heat and the wind I think took a lot of life out of that wheat market and then we cooled right back down again.”
Drought Plagues Western North Dakota and Montana
Western North Dakota is also seeing drought, which extends from the Canadian Prairies. It includes Montana where the crop is only rated 33% good.
Kevin Duling, KD Investors, says, “They just didn’t get get the stand of wheat that they wanted it just is patchy. It’s spotty. It’s just not it’s not uniform and and and there’s spots that are spots that look great, but you know overall it’s obviously not very good.”
Pacific Northwest Crop Deteriorating
Duling is located in Maupin, OR and says the crop in the Pacific Northwest looked good to start but is now deteriorating and so is his production outlook.
“You know, May was dry, April was dry, and now we’re gonna get hot, and everything’s going backwards pretty quickly. So now I’m actually moving below average for the Pacific Northwest.”
And production was already threatened as farmers were only estimated to plant 10 million acres of spring wheat, down 6% from 2024.
Allison Thompson, The Money Farm, Ada, MN, says only 9.4 million were Hard Red Spring wheat.
“We’re already looking at lower acres this year, it just puts more pressure on that market. And we’ve also seen good exports in wheat.”
Plus, drought in the Canadian Prairies has cut yield potential there.
So far, the futures market response has been muted but analysts still have hope for a rally.
