According the University of Nebraska-Lincoln Drought Monitor, this past week saw a continuation of scant rainfall leading to widespread expansion of conditions ranging from abnormal dryness to moderate to severe drought across the Midwest, Southeast and Northeast regions.
Relief from the dryness might not come easy.
AccuWeather released analysis of nearly 60 years of data showing across the U.S. a notable shift in more frequent extreme rainfall events. However, these heavy rainfall events don’t equal more total precipitation, but rather, nearly the same amounts when all added together.
AccuWeather meteorologists point to three data takeaways:
• Days with 1" or more of rain is up approximately 9% since 1965, reflecting the growing prevalence of storms with high water-loading capacity.
• Daily 4" rain events have increased about 70% since 1965.
• Hours per year with 1" or more of rain have nearly tripled since 1985.
The risk brought by the heavy rain outweighs the benefits of the precipitation as flash flooding is more common with these types of events.
Specific to agriculture, the AccuWeather team says the industry-specific threats include crop delays, increased pest pressure and lower yields.
In the company’s press release, meteorologists point to rising global temperatures increasing the atmosphere’s capacity to hold water, therefore the extra moisture results in single events with heavier rainfall.
“As described by the Clausius-Clapeyron equation, for every 1°F of warming, the atmosphere can hold about 4% more water vapor, increasing the potential for extreme rainfall events,” says Brett Anderson, AccuWeather climate expert and senior meteorologist, in the AccuWeather news release.
Will Drought Conditions Reverse Through Winter?
UNL will release its latest drought monitor on Thursday, and you can see it here.
Meanwhile, the Climate Prediction Center’s outlook for Sept. 23 – 27 favors above-normal temperatures across the U.S. Geographies with chances of above-normal precipitation include: the West Coast and Intermountain West, Texas, the lower Mississippi Valley and lower Ohio Valley. However, areas forecast for below-normal precipitation include: the Rockies, the Great Plains, upper-Midwest, and the western Great Lakes region.
Looking ahead through December, much of the southwest, Great Plains, Mississippi Valley and southeast are below normal for their precipitation outlook.
