The nation’s hard red winter (HRW) wheat crop is on the verge of another disaster rivaling 2023.
USDA reports 30% of the wheat is in good to excellent condition. This is down 4% from last week. Meanwhile, 33% of the crop is rated poor to very poor.
Drought Hits HRW Wheat
This ranks as the fifth-worst crop in history. The primary cause is drought, which currently impacts 68% of the crop.
Justin Gilpin, CEO of Kansas Wheat, says the Kansas crop has deteriorated substantially.
“We had a lot of optimism when this crop went in the ground in the fall,” Gilpin says. “It got up and established. It looked pretty promising. It just couldn’t get Mother Nature to cooperate with rains.”
He points out the national rating is being buoyed by better soft red and white winter wheat crops.
“If you break out this—just that hard red winter wheat portion, especially the Southern Plains to Nebraska, Colorado, on down to Texas—you know, you’re looking at a hard red winter wheat number on that good-to-excellent rating at below 15%,” Gilpin says. “Which is, you know, rivaling that very drought-devastated crop that we had in 2023, unfortunately.”
Crop Suffers Freeze Damage
Current ratings do not account for last weekend’s freeze. The event stretched from South Dakota to the Texas Panhandle. Drew Lerner, senior ag meteorologist with World Weather Inc., says the crop was damaged.
“The temperatures did drop into the teens and 20s across parts of Nebraska and northeast Colorado as well as northwestern Kansas,” Lerner says. “And that’s the area where in mid-March, you know, we fell below zero with no snow on the ground for three days. And so we were suspicious that maybe we damaged the crop.”
Temperature Swings Take Toll on Crop
Lerner says record temperature swings have also taken their toll.
“We’ve had a lot of 80- and 90-degree days and we keep bouncing back and forth between those temperatures and freezing,” Lerner says. “So, the crop can’t possibly be in as good of shape as it needs to be, especially since it hasn’t rained in a very long time.”
Rains Too Late?
Rain is in the 6-to-10-day forecast. However, wheat in many HRW areas is ahead of normal development. Lerner notes the moisture may come too late.
“In fact, this weekend we’ll get some rain in Nebraska and northeastern Colorado and northern Kansas. So, there will be some relief coming up, but it’s almost May and we’re going to start reproducing that crop pretty soon,” Lerner adds.
Acres Abandoned
State conditions for hard red winter wheat show a majority of the crop in poor to very poor condition:
- Texas: 55%
- Nebraska: 55%
- Oklahoma: 45%
- Kansas: 51%
- Colorado: 49%
These ratings indicate significant abandonment is likely. Gilpin says Kansas could rival 2023, when 30% of acres were not harvested.
“Historically, abandonment for the state of Kansas is somewhere between that 5% to 6%,” Gilpin says. “I would say we’re probably going to be closer to that 10% to 15% abandonment, depending on what happens the next couple weeks and as farmers get out in the fields the next seven to 10 days to try to really evaluate what that freeze impact might have been.”
Disastrous Yields
Yields will also be down in HRW areas. This includes Kansas, the nation’s top producer.
Gilpin provides a dismal outlook: “Year-on-year total production of hard red winter wheat in the state of Kansas is down. I would guess somewhere between 20% to 25% based off of the acreage and crop prospects right now.”
The result is a near-disaster for much of the hard red winter wheat belt.
