The drought gripping the Western Plains is rapidly becoming one of the most devastating agricultural disasters producers have faced in decades. From southern Colorado to Montana, farmers and ranchers are battling a crisis that extends far beyond dry fields. Water supplies are dwindling, wheat crops are failing, hay production is shrinking and cattle producers are being forced into difficult herd liquidation decisions. While recent rainfall has provided temporary relief in some areas, many producers say the damage is already done.
For crop insurance agent and market analyst Ben Rand, the scale of the disaster is difficult to quantify because of how far-reaching the impacts have become. Rand is a licensed crop insurance broker in more than 20 stays, and he says this as dire of a situation as he’s ever seen.
“This is almost something that’s hard to put a border on. It’s so large,” says Rand of Blue Line Ag Hedge. “The easiest measurement that a lot of people have asked me about is about the wildfires and how many acres were destroyed by the fires in Nebraska. We had over a million acres just in wildfires that are gone of grassland pasture. But the overall drought condition is way larger than that.”
Rand works with producers across multiple states and says the drought’s footprint stretches well beyond Nebraska.
“You can track it all the way down to southern Colorado, well up into Choteau, Montana. I have clients in central Montana that have irrigation system failures up there as well. So the scope of this thing is so large and so big. It’s well outside my draw, and in this agency we’ve never dealt with something of this magnitude before. It’s really unprecedented,” he explains.
The First Warning Signs Appeared Months Ago
While many producers are now focused on failed wheat fields, Rand says the earliest indications of trouble surfaced months before wheat conditions began deteriorating.
“The very first set of problems that was identified wasn’t actually the wheat, it was sugar beets,” Rand says. “I would say that was in February.”
Because sugar beets rely entirely on irrigation, growers quickly recognized that snowpack levels and water availability would determine whether a crop could even be planted.
“There are no non-irrigated sugar beets out here,” he says. “In order to plant sugar beets, you must have a reasonable expectation to get the water you need to grow your guarantee.”
By late winter, reports coming from mountain snowpack regions across the Rockies were already raising concerns.
“We knew as early or had suspicions as early as February going into March, just with reports that we were getting from ski resorts and the Front Range and the Intermountain West snowfall totals, that we were going to have a massive water problem. It was going to be a big water issue,” Rand adds.
Those concerns eventually spread to wheat producers as spring approached.
“Wheat has nine lives. That’s the typical nomenclature everybody says. They always think the wheat is going to come out of it,” says Rand.
But by April, optimism began fading and reality set in.
“Nobody really started to worry about wheat until probably mid-April. The sugar beet problem started bubbling to the surface as early as February, but by April it became clear we had a much bigger issue.” says Rand.
Wheat Fields Produce Almost Nothing
As wheat harvest approaches, many producers are confronting yields that barely justify harvesting. Rand says the appraisals he’s seeing are among the worst of his career.
“In the West here, I’m seeing appraisals that are so dismal,” he says. “The vast majority of stuff is under two-and-a-half bushel.”
Even more troubling is that much of what remains may never make it into a combine.
“What is out there is not mechanically harvestable. The heads are just too low,” Rand explains.
Both continuous wheat and summer-fallow systems have been affected, leaving producers wondering whether any meaningful production remains.
“I’ve talked to some other analysts and we kind of laugh about it and ask, ‘Where is the good wheat?’” Rand says. “I travel. I drive 125,000 miles a year. I don’t know. I can’t show you a good wheat crop anywhere in my draw.”
For many producers, poor yields are arriving at a time when wheat prices have also struggled, adding another layer of financial pressure.
Water Supplies Reach Crisis Levels
Perhaps the most alarming development is what is happening beneath the surface.
Unlike traditional drought years, producers are now confronting a situation where irrigation water itself is disappearing. Irrigation districts have begun issuing curtailment notices, and groundwater supplies are showing signs of stress much earlier than normal.
“The last time that we had anything remotely close to this was 2002,” Rand says. “There was a pretty good drought on the North Platte Valley.”
But this year’s situation covers a vastly larger area.
“This year, that stretches literally from Great Falls, Montana, to southern Colorado,” he says.
The severity of the water shortages became evident in mid-May when producers started receiving notices affecting groundwater wells.
“I’ve been doing this since 2014. I’ve never had a prevent claim on irrigated acres ever. Then in mid-May, I would say it was the 13th or 14th, we got our first curtailment letter on well water,” Rand explains.
The next development was even more alarming.
“May 15, we had our first report of a well pulling air,” he says. “That is something we don’t see typically until July or August, if it happens.”
The timing shocked many producers because planting season was still underway.
“Here we are, crops not even planted, and guys are trying to pre-water to put it in the ground and wells are pulling air. We have farmers trying to manage irrigation wells, shut them off so their residential wells will flow. I’ve never seen something like this.” Rand explains.
Herd Liquidation Accelerates
The drought’s effects are extending well beyond row crops.
With pasture conditions deteriorating and hay supplies tightening, cattle producers are being forced to make difficult decisions earlier than normal.
Rand says cows that might have remained in the herd during more favorable years are now being sold immediately.
“If there was maybe a year where there was a questionable cow that sloughed a calf and maybe you’d keep her around, once she loses the calf, she’s leaving the same day,” he says. “The decisions on what to cull are quick, easy and fast.”
Those decisions are being driven by both shrinking forage supplies and rising feed costs.
“There is very little hay in this part of the world. I’m not going to say none, but it’s extremely tight,” says Rand.
Even regions that typically produce substantial forage are struggling.
“I talked to a guy near Yankton [South Dakota], and he was thinking he maybe had 50% of what he’d normally produce on a first cutting for grass,” Rand says.
As hay supplies tighten, prices continue rising.
“You’re seeing some really pretty high prices on hay at the barns. It will absolutely accelerate everything as far as herd liquidation. The grass ain’t there,” he adds.
Feed Shortages May Be Next
Beyond pasture and hay concerns, producers are beginning to worry about feed availability later this year and into 2027.
Not only are wheat yields collapsing, but irrigated and dryland corn acres are also at risk due to water shortages and prevent plant situations.
“We’ve got bigger problems brewing. Not only are sugar beets affected, but irrigated corn out here. We’re going to have a lot of irrigated corn that doesn’t get planted, or dryland corn that doesn’t get planted,” Rand says.
The consequences could extend throughout the livestock and ethanol sectors.
“There’s going to be feedstock problems for a while. Ethanol plants are going to take that into consideration,” says Rand.
The Mental Toll Continues to Grow
As producers confront failed crops, shrinking water supplies and difficult livestock decisions, the emotional strain is becoming impossible to ignore.
“The stress of it, it’s a tight year,” Rand says. “Margins are poor. I’m looking at my monitor right here watching wheat continue to sell off, guys looking at a horrible wheat crop, and just not seeing any real hope on the board for a turnaround on what they do have.”
Rand says producers need to recognize the toll these conditions can take and seek help when needed.
“The mental stress of this is unparalleled. Never been through it before,” he says.
He encourages producers to lean on available resources and support systems.
“If a farmer finds themselves in that situation, talk to somebody. It’s very tough out here west of North Platte, Nebraska, all the way to the Front Range. But farmers and producers, we rely on those guys out here. They pay our bills and keep us fueled up and fed. If you find yourself in a situation that you don’t know how to handle, there’s tons of resources out there,” Rand adds.
For now, producers across the West continue hoping for meaningful rainfall. Until then, many are holding onto a familiar phrase often heard during drought years.
“One day closer to the big rain,” Rand says.
