The trend in grain prices has shifted – at least for now. December corn prices were down 21¢ and November soybean prices were down 12.75¢ for the week ending Oct. 30. December wheat prices were down 34.5¢.
These declining prices came after several weeks of higher prices.
“I think everybody knew at some point you’d have to take a setback,” says Jerry Gulke, president of the Gulke Group. “Many people thought maybe $10 would be the stop in soybeans, and we blew right through it. Wheat had also made new highs for the year, and then corn followed.”
Farmers had the opportunity to sell nearly $11 per bushel soybeans and $4.20 per bushel corn, Gulke says. Now many are probably wishing they’d sold more.
“Whether this ends the whole thing, I’m not sure. The underlying fundamentals out there are still in place,” he says. “Will China step in and buy more? I think we wait till after the election to see what’s going to happen.”
Read More: Former World Board Chair: USDA’s China Corn Import Numbers Don’t Add Up
Corn posted a weekly key reversal down, Gulke says. “That is indicative of a top being made or in the process of being made. The proof will come if we ever get a chance to sell $4.20 corn again. Or if we blow past $4.20 to $4.50.”
Markets tend to fall faster than they go up, he adds.
All Eyes on the Election
The uncertainty around the presidential election outcome on Tuesday has the markets uneasy, Gulke says.
“If Biden wins the presidency, I think he will be just as hard on China and maybe Russia as President Trump has,” he says. “I think whoever gets in there will support agriculture. It just depends on whether we lean more toward less subsidy now that prices are higher.”
Gulke finished harvesting in northern Illinois this week. “Our bean yields were not what I thought they would be, maybe I was too optimistic. The heavy black soils seem to do well, but the lighter soils just didn’t have enough water retention. All in all, I had a good average crop — not a record crop.”
Read More
Jerry Gulke: Not Your Father’s Markets
Jerry Gulke: Wheat, Corn Prices Make New Highs, While Soybeans Stall
Jerry Gulke: Lessons Learned in 30 Years of Grain Marketing
Find more written and audio commentary from Gulke at AgWeb.com/Gulke
Check the latest market prices in AgWeb’s Commodity Markets Center.
Jerry Gulke farms in Illinois and North Dakota. He is president of Gulke Group. Disclaimer: There is substantial risk of loss in trading futures or options, and each investor and trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. There is no guarantee the advice we give will result in profitable trades. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
