Promising news of a COVID-19 vaccine trial made headlines Monday and spurred stock market momentum. Pfizer, which developed the vaccine with the German drugmaker BioNTech, announced its clinical trial found the vaccine was more than 90% effective in preventing the disease among trial volunteers with no evidence of prior infection.
While details surrounding when the vaccine will be available are sparse, research from Kansas State University shows a vaccine may not be enough to restore confidence in consumers for eating out.
“Meat Demand Monitor, supported by the beef and pork checkoffs, shows the average person thinks first quarter of 2021 is when they might have a vaccine available,” says Glynn Tonsor of Kansas State University, who helps conduct and author the research. “Only about one-third of the people surveyed say they’re going to return back to more in-the-restaurant and dine-in meals, if they have a vaccine.”
Tonsor says the fact consumers will be cautious about eating out even with a vaccine available, means more attention will still be placed on retail meat demand. He thinks those restaurants able to provide drive-thru or curbside options will continue to do better.
“I think the relative strength of retail demand instead of food service has many months ahead of us, not just the next couple of months during the winter, and a vaccine alone won’t change that behavior,” says Tonsor.
Tonsor says he’s been surprised at the strength of retail meat demand and how long its lasted. He feared cooking fatigue and things would wear on people, but that hasn’t happened.
“My concerns are in the retail side of things and keep logistics up,” he says. “Can we keep a high volume of meat going through grocery stores to sustain that? I’m optimistic we can, because they’ve made a lot of adjustments, just like the live animal processing side, but going through the next few months, that’s going to be critical to sustain that.”
