More than a month after African Swine Fever (ASF) was detected in the Western Hemisphere, pork producers and hog markets are still on edge about the possibility it will enter the U.S. If ASF were to get within the U.S., economists say exports would shutter almost overnight.
“The biggest concern is that we get it here, especially if it gets into our feral swine,” says Dermot Hayes, agricultural economist at Iowa State University. “If we get it in the feral swine population, it’s here to stay and our exports are in the dump.”
While the threat of ASF has consumed the pork industry for years, the U.S. has upped biosecurity and put in other protocols to keep the disease out of the country. A recent study confirmed added efforts in the U.S. are working. But as China continues to battle the disease, the move of ASF into the Western Hemisphere is elevating the threat this year. Record demand would be at risk if ASF is ever detected in the U.S.
“What happened with Germany is they lost their export opportunity into Asia, and that certainly would happen here,” says Hayes, when asked what would happen to pork demand if ASF is ever confirmed in the U.S. “Germany was able to ship its pork into Spain, and Spain exported into Asia, but we don’t have that opportunity. How do you get them where they can receive 25% to 30% more pork? It’s a challenge.”
While U.S. producers and the entire pork industry work fiercely to keep ASF out of the U.S., Iowa State agricultural economist Lee Schulz says the market implications would be huge.
“I think you may see some short-term reactions to it,” says Schulz. “But really, this has been a concern. If we go back to when it hit China, and we’ve seen it in Asia, so I think it’s one of many factors that, obviously, it’s a big factor kind of overhanging the demand picture.”
As the threat of ASF remains a concern, Schulz says there are bright spots painting an optimistic demand picture today.
“The big one is we’re seeing some cost-push inflation,” he says. “It costs more to produce pork today. You’re seeing lower supplies of pork, but then we’re just seeing demand a lot stronger than we expected. I think you’re seeing a return to maybe that 50/50 food away from home food and in home. There’s some reverberations there, but overall pork demand has held up. I think beef prices being where they’re at has certainly helped that, but the protein demand picture is great, both here in the U.S. and on the export front.”
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