The ongoing trade dispute with China reportedly made progress this week. In what marked the first call since the trade conflict began in February, President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social that he held an hour-and-a-half conversation with President Xi Jinping, saying the conversation “resulted in a very positive conclusion for both countries”.
An in-person meeting between trade and economic leaders of both countries is on the calendar next. But as the negotiations play out, export demand is starting to take a hit, especially when tariffs hit their peak in April.
U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF) says due in part to a sharp decline in shipments to China, April exports of U.S. beef and pork came in lower than a year ago. USMEF says a major headwind that showed up in the April numbers is China’s retaliatory duties on both beef and pork from the U.S.
But that’s not the only hurdle. Beef exports into China are also waiting for China to renew establishment registrations for U.S. beef plants and cold storage facilities, the majority of which expired in mid-March. This is a non-tariff trade barrier that is hurting beef exports.
According to USDA data, USMEF says April beef exports were 10% lower than April 2024. Value also fell, down 8% to $824.5 million. The biggest decline, by far, is China. Beef exports to China dropped 70% — that makes sense when you consider China’s total duties on U.S. beef peaked at 147% in April. At the same time, the fact that China hasn’t re-established U.S. plant registrations also caused exports to fall.
Overall, beef exports to Mexico also came in lower. However, USMEF says that was partially offset by larger exports to South Korea, Japan and Central and South America.
Pork exports fell 15% compared to a year prior, which is the lowest in 10 months. The value fell to 675.3 million, representing a 13% decline. USMEF says exports to China, which are mainly pork variety meats, dropped 35% during that time. Pork also faced a high tariff during April, peaking at 172%. But pork exports also slipped to Mexico, Japan and Canada — with exports to Canada down 45%.
The bright spots for U.S. pork exports in April were Colombia and Central Mexico — which are hitting a record pace.
U.S. Farm Report spoke to USMEF Dan Halstrom just hours after President Trump posted a more optimistic view of the relationship with China on social media. He says resolving issues with China will only fuel the strong start to the year.
“There’s no doubt outside of China, the rest of the business during the first part of this year and coming off records from last year is fantastic — record breaking in terms of demand,” Halstrom says. “China’s been the X factor. And through the first three months of this year before the disruption, things look pretty good. The April meat export stats just came out, and what’s down is China. We knew that would happen in April. So, this news couldn’t be more timely. We have to get people to the table. This was a necessary first step. And it’s great news the A-Team is going to get engaged and hopefully bring this back around to get some stability back into the market.”
The “A-team” Halstrom is referring to is key members from Trump’s cabinet. That includes treasury secretary Scott Bessent, commerce secretary Howard Lutnick and U.S. trade representative Jamieson Greer.
“We need some sort of an agreement because there’s so many things going on. It’s not only tariff related,” Halstrom says. “In fact, on the beef side, it’s not tariff related. It’s non-tariff trade issues. We have approximately 400 beef establishments that have not been relisted in the China cipher system. So, it doesn’t matter what your duty is if your plants aren’t registered. This is at the top of the list on the beef side. On the pork side, the plants are listed, which is great news, but we still have a pretty hefty tariff. Uncertainty and instability in the market right now caused around China is a real headwind we have to get beyond.”
Halstrom says USMEF’s outlook for the remainder for 2025 is for exports to return to a strong pace, which was a theme during the first quarter of the year.
“For the pork side, our forecast, which assumes the current situation or something improved, shows we’re basically steady with a year ago — which was a record a year,” Halstrom says. “So, the demand is still very, very strong. Now, the caveat is what happens with China going forward on pork, and definitely on beef. On the beef side, our forecast is down 6% — but that’s with no beef plants relisted for China. Outside of China, beef demand is, in our opinion, fantastic — even at higher prices. Despite the uncertainty, we’re well positioned.”
Looking back at 2024, beef export value climbed 5% from 2023 despite a slight decrease in volume. Part of that was due to historically tight cattle supplies creating less meat for exports.
Pork exports to Mexico in 2024 totaled 1.15 million metric tons in 2024, up 5% from the enormous total exported in 2023. Export value climbed 10% in 2024 to $2.58 billion – more than doubling since 2020.
