TODAY ON AGDAY
FEB. 22, 2016
OPENING HEADLINES:
COMING UP TODAY ON AGDAY - COULD FALLING LAND PRICES COME TO AN END? ACCORDING TO LANDOWNER EDITOR MIKE WALSTEN: “I’M REALLY LOOKING AT 17 AS THE YEAR WE PUT THIS BOTTOM IN.” IN AGRIBUSINESS, OUR GUEST BRIAN SPLITT WITH ALLENDALE TALKS ABOUT MAKING SMART BUSINESS DECISIONS.
“THESE ARE PERIODS WHERE THE MARKET IS NOT PAYING YOU TO STORE YOUR BEANS MUCH LESS PAYING YOU TO PAY SOMEBODY ELSE TO STORE YOUR BEANS SO THAT IS NOT EFFICIENT.” PLUS MACHINERY PETE TAKES ON COMBINE SALES. AND JOIN IS IN TOURING ONE OF THE LAST DAIRY FARMS IN SAN DIEGO. THIS FAMILY OPERATION IS WORKING TO LEVERAGE DECADES OF PRODUCTION INTO A VIABLE FUTURE.
USDA SHOWS FEWER BUT BIGGER FARMS:
GOOD MORNING I’M CLINTON GRIFFITHS. A NEW SURVEY OUT FROM USDA PAINTING A FRESH PICTURE OF THE U.S. FARM LANDSCAPE. THE REPORT SHOWING THE NATION’S FARMS ARE GETTING BIGGER, AND THE NUMBER OF FARMS IS GETTING SMALLER. THE ANNUAL USDA FARM AND LAND IN FARMS REPORT RELEASED BY USDA SHOWS THE U.S. LOST 18,000 FARMS LAST YEAR COMPARED TO 2014. THE TOTAL NOW ESTIMATED AT JUST OVER 2 (2.07) MILLION FARMS IN THE UNITED STATES. IT ALSO SHOWS THAT U.S. FARMLAND DECREASED IN 2015 BY ONE MILLION ACRE’S. FEDERAL RESERVE SHOWS SOFTER LAND PRICES: SPEAKING OF FARMLAND, THE FEDERAL RESERVE’S RECENT LAND VALUES REPORT, INDICATES SOFTER LAND PRICES IN ALL THREE REGIONS OF THE MIDWEST, MID-SOUTH AND PLAINS. WHAT 2016 HOLDS FOR LAND FUTURES:
TYNE MORGAN JOINS US WITH A GLIMPSE AT THE LAND VALUE LANDSCAPE FOR 2016 AND BEYOND. PARCELS OF OPPORTUNITY. THIS SOIL MAY NOT BE WORTH WHAT IT WAS THREE YEARS AGO, BUT EXPERTS SAY, THAT MEANS 2016 IS THE YEAR TO BUY. YOUR BEST OPPORUTNITY TO MAKE YOUR MOST LONG TERM MONEY IS IN TIMES LIKE THIS THERE ARE A LOT OF FARMERS THAT BOUGHT IN THE 1980S THAT AROE DOING VERY GOOD TODAY. BUT WHAT MAKES 2016 SUCH AN ATTRACTIVE YEAR TO BUY? LANDOWNER EDITOR MIKE WALSTEN SAYS ITS’ LOWER INTEREST RATES COUPLED WITH THE FACT WE COULD SEE A BOTTOM IN LAND PRICES THIS YEAR. LAND PRICES COULD FALL:
PRICES EXPECTED TO FALL EVEN ON HIGHER QUALITY GROUND:
WALSTEN THINKS OVERALL LAND PRICES WILL FALL ANYWHERE FROM 20 TO 30 PERCENT FROM ITS PEAK, MUCH DIFFERENT THAN WHAT FARMERS EXPERIENCED IN THE 1980S. IT’S THE HIGHER QUALITY GROUND THAT COULD SEE THE BIGGEST DECLINE IN 2016.
HIGH VALUED LAND IS ALWAYS THE LAST PIECE OF GROUND TO COME DOWN, IT’S THE MARGINAL GROUND THAT DECLINES FIRST. AND WE’VE ALREADY SEEN THAT,. ULTIMATELY, THEN, THE HIGH VALUED LAND WILL COME DOWN. THAT’S PROBABLY THE PIECE THAT’S GOIGN TO TEND DOWN HERE IN 2016 AND THAT’S WHERE YOURE GOING TO GET OSME OF HTE LAND VALUE DELCINES.">
BUYER’S MARKET:
RECENT LAND SALES ARE PROOF MANY IN AGRICULTURE ARE STILL BUYING. LANDOWNER EDITOR MIKE WALSTEN SAYS THE HIGHEST LAND SALE RECENTLY RAKED IN $15 THOUSAND, 300 DOLLARS PER ACRE. AND THAT WAS IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND I ALSO SAW A 15 NORTH OF PEORIA, NORTHEAST OF PEORIA.
WALSTEN SAYS IT’S FARMERS MAKING THOSE BUYS. BUT ONE FACTOR THAT COULD HINDER BUYING MOMENTUM, IS A SPIKE IN INTEREST RATES. WHILE SOME THOUGHT THE FED WILL CONTINUE TO RAISE RATES THIS YEAR, THE MOOD HAS NOW CHANGED.
EQUIPMENT COMPANIES FEEL IMPACT OF LAND PRICES:
LOWER COMMODITIES NOT JUST IMPACTING LAND PRICES. DEERE AND COMPANY, THE WORLD’S LARGEST AG EQUIPMENT MAKER IS LOWERING IT’S FINANCIAL FORECAST FOR 2016. IT EXPECTS SALES TO DROP ANOTHER 10 PERCENT THIS YEAR. THE COMPANY CONTINUES TO READJUST ITS MANUFACTURING WORKFORCE--CUTTING 24-HUNDRED JOBS THROUGH OCTOBER OVER THE LAST YEAR. DEERE ANALYSTS ALSO FORECASTING A 20 PERCENT DROP INDUSTRY WIDE FOR AG MACHINERY SALES IN BOTH THE U.S. AND CANADA. DOW/ DUPONT MERGER:
DOW/DUPONT BEGINNING TO REVEAL THEIR BUSINESS PLANS FOR IT’S RECENT MERGER. THE TWO COMPANIES SAY THE NEW CORPORATE HEADQUARTERS FOR THE AGRICULTURE BUSINESS WILL BE LOCATED IN WILMINGTON, DELAWARE . THEN, TWO COMPANIES’ PREVIOUS HEADQUARTERS, IN JOHNSTON, IOWA AND INDIANAPOLIS, WILL SERVE AS GLOBAL BUSINESS CENTERS. A NEW COMPANY NAME HASN’T BEEN REVEALED. MERGER CONCERNS:
AS HEAD OF THE SENATE JUDICIARY COMMITTEE, IOWA SENATOR CHUCK GRASSLEY SAYS HE’S STILL LISTENING TO CONCERNS FROM FARMERS AND CONSUMERS ABOUT THE MERGER...ADDING AN ANTITRUST REVIEW IS STILL UNDERWAY
AVIAN FLU UPDATE:
AN UPDATE TO THE JANUARY AVIAN INFLUENZA OUTBREAK IN SOUTHERN INDIANA. OFFICIALS SAY THERE HAVE BEEN NO NEW POSITIVE TESTS SINCE JANUARY 16. APHIS CONTINUES TO CONDUCT AGGRESSIVE TESTING IN THE 10 KILOMETER CONTROL AREA. AS LONG AS THE TESTS HOLD, THE DEPARTMENT PLANS TO LIFT THAT CONTROL AREA TODAY.
CROP COMMENTS:
LET’S GET YOUR FIRST LOOK AT FARM COUNTRY WEATHER. MIKE HOFFMAN HAS THAT FOR US IN CROP COMMENTS, MIKE. OUR FIRST CROP COMMENT COMES FROM AGWEB, WHERE A PRODUCER IN PIERCE COUNTY WASHINGTON TOOK THIS PHOTO. THEY SAY THEIR DRY STOCK DAIRY COWS ARE OUT GRAZING ON PASTURE NEAR ORTING, WASHINGTON.
TEASE:
ALRIGHT WHEN AGDAY CONTINUES...WE’LL CHECK ON CURRENT MARKET CONDITIONS INCLUDING SOME THOUGHTS ON MAKING THE RIGHT MOVES IN 2016. AND LATER, AFTER SIX DECADES THIS SAN DIEGO DAIRY FARM IS HANGING TOUGH HOPING FRESH IDEAS CAN HELP BRIGHTEN ITS FUTURE POTENTIAL. STICK AROUND, FOLKS. COMING UP I’M GOING TO TELL YOU ABOUT TWO COMBINE THAT SOLD ON THE FARM AUCTIONS LAST WEEK, REALLY STRONG PRICES. CHINA TRYING TO FIGURE OUT HOW TO SELL AGING CORN:
IN AGRIBUSINESS...CHINA MAKING PLANS TO SELL IT’S AGING STOCKPILES OF CORN. AS WE’VE REPORTED THE COUNTRY HOLDING SOME 10 MILLION TONS OF AGING CORN--MUCH OF WHICH HAS BEEN STORED FOR MORE THAN 3 YEARS. THE COUNTRY REPORTEDLY STILL WORKING ON HOW MUCH IT PLANS TO SELL BUT IS ASKING BUSINESSES THAT MAKE ETHANOL OR STARCH TO PARTICIPATE. CME:
IN AGRIBUSINESS LETS SEE HOW MARKETS CLOSED THE WEEK...FOR THAT WE’LL HEAD TO THE FLOOR OF THE CME IN CHICAGO.
AGRIBUSINESS:
JOINING US HERE AT THE AGRIBUSINESS DESK THIS MORNING WE HAVE BRIAN SPLIT WITH ALLENDALE. BRAIN, LET’S TALK ABOUT JUST TRYING TO MAKE A PROFIT, MAKING SOME MONEY HERE IN 2016, COULD BE A CHALLENGE. WE ARE GOING TO REALLY HAVE TO PAY ATTENTION TO WHAT’S GOING ON, AREN’T WE?>
NATIONAL WEATHER:
WELCOME BACK TO THIS MONDAY MORNING EDITION OF AGDAY. METEOROLOGIST MIKE HOFFMAN HERE. MIKE LOOKS LIKE THERE’S A BULLS EYE HERE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE SOUTH. IT’S SOMETIMES AMAZING WHEN YOU LOOK AT THE RADAR ESTIMATES OF WHAT HAPPENEDAND JUST SEE SOME AREAS’ OBVIOUSLY GOT MULTIPLE THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH.
REGIONAL WEATHER:
THAT’S A LOOK ACROSS THE COUNTRY NOW LETS TAKE A LOOK AT SOME LOCAL FORECASTS. FOR BAKERSFIELD CALIFORNIA TODAY SOME MORNING FOG THEN PARTLY SUNNY HIGH AROUND 70 DEGREES.
TEASE:
CARRINGTON NORTH DAKOTA MOSTLY SUNNY AND MILDER. HIGH 39 AND FINALLY COLUMBUS GEORGIA MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS LIKELY HIGH OF 66. STRAIGHT AHEAD ON THIS MONDAY MORNING...MACHINERY PETE STOPS BY WITH A LOOK AT THE LATEST TRENDS IN USED COMBINES. AND LATER, YOU DON’T OFTEN THINK FARMING WHEN TALKING ABOUT SAN DIEGO. WE’LL MEET A DAIRY FARMER WORKING TO KEEP THE CONVERSATION GOING. MACHINERY PETE:
WELL, TWO THINGS THAT I HAVE NOTICED EARLY HERE IN 2016, FOLKS, ONE, IS THAT THE NUMBER OF MACHINERY AUCTIONS THAT ARE BEING FORCED BY LENDERS IS REALLY INCREASING AND I THINK WE ARE GOING TO SEE A LOT MORE OF THESE SALES THROUGH THE SPRING WITH A LOT OF LATE MODEL EQUIPMENT. THANKS GREG. TEASE:
WHEN WE COME BACK, WE’LL VISIT ONE OF THE LAST DAIRY FARMS IN SAN DIEGO COUNTY.
IN THE COUNTRY:
SAN DIEGO, IT’S KNOWN FOR ITS BEACHES AND NEAR PERFECT CLIMATE-- FARMING HOWEVER, NOT GENERALLY THE FIRST THOUGHT. THE COUNTY IS HOME TO ROUGHLY 5-THOUSAND FARMS--WITH AN AVERAGE SIZE OF 9 ACRES OR LESS. BUT, WHAT’S GETTING HARDER TO FIND IS A MODERN WORKING DAIRY FARM. IN SAN DIEGO COUNTY’S HILL COUNTRY..
CLOSING:
THAT’S ALL THE TIME WE HAVE THIS MORNING. WE’RE GLAD YOU TUNED IN. FOR MIKE HOFFMAN, AND AL PELL. I’M CLINTON GRIFFITHS. HAVE A GREAT DAY. I’M CLINTON GRIFFITHS.
PROMO:
TUESDAY ON AGDAY, WE’LL CHECK ON PECAN HARVEST IN NEW MEXICO. PLUS A LOOK AT COVER CROP RESEARCH AND THE IMPACT ON SOIL HEALTH IN THE SOUTH. ALL THAT AND YOUR FARM COUNTRY FORECAST. JOIN ME WEEKDAYS FOR AGDAY .
