Statistics Canada this morning released updated crop production estimates based primarily on satellite imagery. Model-based Principal Field Crop Estimates have replaced the September Farm Survey. The estimates are calculated according to a new and innovative approach developed by Statistics Canada in close partnership with Agriculture Canada. These yield estimates are based on a model that incorporates coarse resolution satellite data from Statistics Canada’s Crop Condition Assessment Program, data from Statistics Canada’s field crop reporting series, and agroclimatic data.
In this report, the production of spring wheat and barley at the national level is estimated to be higher in 2016 than in 2015, while that of soybeans and canola is expected to be relatively unchanged. Production of oats and corn for grain is expected to decline.
Canola
At the national level, Canadian canola production is estimated to be 18.3 MMT in 2016, the same level as in 2015, as a result of an expected increase in average yield combined with an anticipated decline in harvested acreage. Estimated average yield for 2016 is up 4.2% from 2015 to a record 41.1 bu/acre. Estimated average yield is also up compared with the five-year average for Manitoba ( 22.9%), Saskatchewan ( 16.7%) and Alberta ( 17.5%). Harvested acreage is expected to be down 4.0% to 19.6 million acres in 2016.
The canola number is bigger in this report than projected in the farmer survey in late August. But the new satellite approach to the production estimates came up 4 mmt short in this report last year relative to what the crop really turned out to be.
Wheat
Spring wheat production is estimated to be 20.6 MMT in 2016, up 3.9% from 2015, mainly as a result of a higher estimated average yield across the Prairies. The national average yield is anticipated to be 49.9 bu/acre, up 13.4% from 44.0 bu/acre in 2015. Harvested acreage in 2016 is reported to have declined 8.3% compared with 2015.
Spring wheat production is expected to increase in Alberta ( 13.5%) and Manitoba ( 2.6%) in 2016, but to decrease in Saskatchewan (-2.8%). Average yield in Saskatchewan is anticipated to be up 10.6% compared with 2015 to 43.3 bu/acre. However, an anticipated decline (-12.1%) in harvested area is expected to offset the higher yield anticipated in 2016. In Alberta, average yield is expected to rise 20.7% from 2015 to 57.0 bu/acre.
Durum wheat production at the national level is expected to be a record large 7.3 MMT in 2016, up 35.7% from 2015. This increase is due to a 4.4% gain in acreage, combined with a 30.0% rise in expected yield to 44.7 bu/acre. However, there are significant quality issues this year due to fusarium.
Soybeans
Canadian soybean production is estimated to be virtually unchanged compared with 2015, totaling 6.0 MMT in 2016. Hot and dry growing conditions in Ontario led to an expected 3.0% decrease in soybean yield to 44.1 bu/acre in 2016. Production within the province is expected to be down 10.0% from 2015 to 3.2 MMT. However, soybean production in Manitoba is estimated to be up 24.7% compared with 2015, because of an expected increase in harvested area ( 16.3% to 1.6 million acres) and average yield ( 7.3% to 39.7 bu/acre) in 2016.
Corn for grain
At the national level, corn for grain production is estimated to decrease 2.9% from 2015 to 13.0 MMT in 2016.
An expected decline in yield and a lower reported harvested acreage in 2016 could lead to decreased production in Ontario (-4.5% to 8.4 million tonnes) and Quebec (-5.5% to 3.6 million tonnes) compared with 2015. Although average yield in Manitoba is expected to decline 2.9% from 2015 to 122.8 bu/acre, production is anticipated to increase 26.8% to 1.0 million tonnes in 2016, primarily as a result of an expected gain in harvested acreage ( 30.6% to 320,000 acres).
Barley and oats
Barley production is estimated to increase 4.4% from 2015 to 8.4 MMT in 2016, because of a 5.0% rise in expected average yield to 68.3 bu/acre.
Oat production is anticipated to decrease 13.4% from 2015 to 2.9 MMT in 2016, as a result of a 12.5% decline in reported harvested acres to 2.2 million acres. Average yield is expected to edge down to 84.8 bu/acre.
The views, opinions and positions expressed by the author are theirs alone and do not necessarily reflect the views, opinions or positions of Pro Farmer.
