- Farm Diesel firms 6 3/4 cents to an average of $3.46 3/4 per gallon.
- Distillate stocks are 14.5 million barrels below year-ago at 116.2 Mmbbl -- March WTI Crude oil opened at $97.40 this morning.
- LP softens 27 cents in regional averages to $3.82/gallon
- National propane stocks are 25.76 Mmbbl behind year-ago at 31.67 Mmbbl -- March Natural gas opened at $4.85 this morning.
LP -- Propane softened 27 cents in regional averages this week to $3.82, but prices range from $2.39 in Illinois to $5.10 in Wisconsin, illustrating the wild volatility this market is experiencing. Prices may improve across the northern plains as a winter storm is due to roll through the southern and central plains later this week. Unfortunately, areas hit by the upcoming weather will continue to struggle with deliveries and availability, and we expect prices to reflect the trouble.
We hope to see high natural gas pricing to excite natgas and natural gas liquids production in the near-term which would help ease prices on end-users. However, winter weather is expected to persist on its current course and Punxsutawney Phil -- prognosticator of prognosticators -- forecasts six more weeks of winter, leading us to wonder if Phil doesn’t have a few chestnuts invested in natural gas futures.
Below, we table propane prices as reported to your Inputs Monitor for the week ended January 31, 2014.
| Propane 2/3/14 | Previous Week | Current Week | Change |
| Iowa | $4.75 | $4.73 | -$0.02 |
| Illinois | $4.99 | $2.39 | -$2.60 |
| Indiana | $3.59 | $3.51 | -$0.08 |
| Wisconsin | $5.17 | $5.10 | -$0.07 |
| Minnesota | $4.33 | $3.73 | -$0.60 |
| South Dakota | $4.35 | $4.46 | +$0.11 |
| North Dakota | $4.39 | $4.21 | -$0.18 |
| Nebraska | $4.24 | $4.22 | -$0.02 |
| Missouri | $3.19 | $3.28 | +$0.09 |
| Kansas | $3.25 | $3.16 | -$0.09 |
| Ohio | $3.89 | $3.89 | Unchanged |
| Michigan | $2.97 | $3.21 | +$0.24 |
| Midwest Average | $4.09 | $3.82 | - 27 cents |
Farm Diesel --
Farm diesel firmed 6 3/4 cents this week to a regionwide average of $3.46 3/4 with 3 of the 12 states in our index unchanged. The biggest move was a 41 cent spike in North Dakota to $3.94 and Nebraska shooting 24 cents higher of its own. Other moves trended 8 cents lower to four cents higher on the week.
The groundhog’s prediction of six more weeks of winter threatens to push farm diesel pricing higher as a party to higher priced #2 fuel oil for home heat. The East coast has been hit unexpectedly hard by winter weather this year and demand for #2 heating oil has been nearly as high as demand for propane. Expect continued wintery weather to weigh on stocks and if spring does not come before shortfalls, we could see farm diesel pricing run much higher before spring. We are currently 50% filled for spring/summer farm diesel needs.
If you are not at least half full for spring, capture today’s price -- unless you are in North Dakota or Nebraska, where prices have already shot up.
The regionwide low currently lies at $3.27 in Kansas and the Midwest high is at $3.94 in North Dakota.
| Farm Diesel 2/3/14 | Three Weeks Ago | Previous Week | Current Week | Change |
| Iowa | $3.36 | $3.35 | $3.37 | +$0.02 |
| Illinois | $3.50 | $3.44 | $3.44 | Unchanged |
| Indiana | $3.45 | $3.45 | $3.49 | +$0.04 |
| Wisconsin | $3.58 | $3.58 | $3.60 | +$0.02 |
| Minnesota | $3.41 | $3.40 | $3.36 | -$0.04 |
| South Dakota | $3.52 | $3.52 | $3.44 | -$0.08 |
| North Dakota | $3.54 | $3.53 | $3.94 | +$0.41 |
| Nebraska | $3.30 | $3.30 | $3.54 | +$0.24 |
| Missouri | $3.36 | $3.32 | $3.32 | Unchanged |
| Kansas | $3.34 | $3.34 | $3.27 | -$0.07 |
| Ohio | $3.26 | $3.39 | $3.39 | Unchanged |
| Michigan | $3.43 | $3.44 | $3.45 | +$0.01 |
| Midwest Average | $3.40 1/2 | $3.40 | $3.46 3/4 | + 6 3/4 cents |
