Friday, September 27--Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Web Log
* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *
In overnight news, consumer confidence in the European Union
rose to its highest level in more than two years during
August. The EU’s economic sentiment indicator rose to 96.9
in September versus 95.3 in August. However, European stock
markets were weaker due to concerns about the Italian
government’s stability amid a fraud scandal involving former
prime minister Berlusconi. Asian stock markets were firmer
in uneventful action Friday, following Wall Street’s advance
Thursday. The main focus of the market place is now on the
U.S. budget and debt ceiling impasses that threaten to shut
down the U.S. government as soon as next Tuesday. Congress
needs to pass a budget by that time and is working on bills.
Presently, it’s highly uncertain if the Congress can come to
agreement by October 1. Also, in mid-October the U.S. will
hit its borrowing limit. These matters are presently an
underlying bearish factor for most markets and could become
a major bearish factor in the next couple weeks. Some
analysts are saying gold is presently seeing selling
interest limited due to some safe-haven demand ahead of the
U.S. budget and spending deadlines and the uncertainty of
the matter. But other analysts are saying recent selling
pressure in gold is because it’s acting like a raw commodity
ahead of the budget deadlines. It’s likely one of these
scenarios will clearly come to the forefront by early next
week. U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes
personal income and outlays, and the University of Michigan
consumer sentiment survey. A couple more Federal Reserve
officials are scheduled to speak Friday, and their comments
will be closely watched by the market place.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
S&P 500 futures: Prices are weaker early today. Bulls still
have the overall near-term technical advantage but have
faded a bit recently. The shorter-term moving averages (4-,
9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving
average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day
moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term
technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of
1,695.20 and then at 1,705.00. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. Downside support for active traders
today is located at 1,675.00 and then at 1,667.00. Sell
stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s
Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5
Nasdaq index futures: Prices are weaker early today. The
bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical
advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-
day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is
above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day.
Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral
early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is located at
3,225.00 and then at this week’s high of 3,237.00. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. On the downside,
short-term support is seen at Thursday’s low of 3,202.25 and
then at this week’s low of 3,195.75. Sell stops are likely
located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market
Rating: 4.5.
Dow futures: Prices are weaker early today. Bulls still have
the overall near-term technical advantage but are fading.
Buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at
15,261 and then at 15,300. Sell stops likely reside just
below technical support at this week’s low of 15,185 and
then at 15,125. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral
early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day.
The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average.
Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral
to bearish early today. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating:
4.5
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer early today. The
bulls have some upside near-term technical momentum.
Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish
early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and
18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today.
Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 133
23/32 and then at 134 even. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at
133 even and then at the overnight low of 132 22/32. Sell
stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s
Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer early today.
Prices hit a two-month high Wednesday. The bulls still have
upside technical momentum. Shorter-term moving averages (4-
9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above
the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term
resistance lies at this week’s high of 126.10.0 and then at
126.16.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
Shorter-term technical support lies at 126.00.0 and then at
the overnight low of 125.29.0 Sell stops likely reside just
below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX
The December U.S. dollar index is weaker early today. Bears
remain in overall near-term technical command. Slow
stochastics for the dollar index are neutral early today.
The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at
this week’s high of 80.760 and then at 80.949. Shorter-term
support is seen at this week’s low of 80.395 and then at
last week’s low of 80.155. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market
Rating: 4.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
November Nymex crude oil prices are weaker early today.
Bulls are fading. In November Nymex crude, look for buy
stops to reside just above resistance at $103.00 and then at
$104.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at
this week’s low of $102.20 and then at $102.00. Wyckoff’s
Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
GRAINS
Markets were mixed overnight. Soybeans were firmer and corn
and wheat were just slightly lower. Wheat bulls are making
a good upside move as futures prices Thursday hit multi-
week highs. There are early technical clues the wheat
markets have put in major lows. Soybean and some corn
harvesting are picking up speed this week. Traders are
looking ahead to next Monday’s USDA quarterly grain stocks
report. That report is expected to be bearish for corn and
soybeans. Technically, the soybean bulls still have the
overall advantage, but have faded, to begin to suggest a
market top is in place. Corn market bears remain in firm
technical command.
