The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) says La Niña arrived during October, with negative sea surface temperatures (SST) anomalies in early November stretching across most of the eastern and central equatorial Pacific Ocean (as shown below). It notes that overall, ocean and atmospheric systems reflected a weak and short-lived La Niña event.
NOAA looks for La Niña to linger through the winter, but gives just 30% odds of it sticking around for the February through April period. “Given the current atmospheric and oceanic conditions, along with model forecasts, the forecaster consensus favors the continuation of weak La Niña conditions through December-February (DJF) 2016-17,” it states. “At this time, the consensus favors La Niña to be short-lived, with ENSO-neutral favored beyond DJF. La Niña conditions are present and slightly favored to persist (~55% chance) through winter 2016-17.”
