South American Crop Consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier has raised his peg of Brazil’s soybean crop by 1 MMT to 100 MMT, citing good yield reports, with 33% of the crop now harvested. He says more than half of the crop in Mato Grosso has been harvested.
“In central Mato Grosso where dry weather impacted the early maturing soybeans, the average yield is about 3.4 bu. per acre less than last year. In western Mato Grosso the average yield is 1.1 bu. per acre higher than last year and in southeastern Mato Grosso, the average yield is 4.5 bu. per acre higher than last year,” says Cordonnier.
“I was a little hesitant to increase the Brazilian estimate in the face of dry weather in northeastern Brazil and that is why I have a neutral bias (going forward),” says Cordonnier. “Generally, the estimates for the Brazilian crop have been increasing in recent weeks and Agroconsult last week increased their soybean estimate to 101.6 MMT, up 2.4% from their December estimate.”
Cordonnier also raised his Argentine soybean crop peg by 1 MMT to 60 MMT, saying weather continues to be beneficial. “The previously dry concerns have largely disappeared and they have actually been replaced by concerns about localized flooding, but I think the key word is localized,” he says, noting around 65% of the crop is in the pod filling stage and mostly rated good to very good. He has a neutral to slightly higher bias going forward.
| Dr. Cordonnier 2015-16 Soybean Estimates | Est. | Maximum | Minimum | 2014-15 |
in million metric tons | ||||
| Brazil | 100.0 | 103.0 | 98.0 | 96.2 |
| Argentina | 60.0 | 62.0 | 59.0 | 60.8 |
| Paraguay | 8.8 | 9.3 | 8.3 | 8.4 |
| Bolivia | 3.0 | 3.3 | 2.7 | 2.6 |
| Uruguay | 3.5 | 3.8 | 3.2 | 3.1 |
| Total | 175.3 | 181.4 | 171.2 | 171.4 |
| Dr. Cordonnier 2015-16 Corn Estimates | Est. | Maximum | Minimum | 2014-15 |
in million metric tons | ||||
| Brazil | 84.0 | 87.0 | 81.0 | 85.4 |
| Argentina | 25.0 | 27.0 | 23.0 | 27.0 |
| Paraguay | 3.1 | 3.4 | 2.7 | 3.0 |
| Bolivia | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.7 |
| Uruguay | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.5 |
| Total | 113.3 | 118.8 | 107.7 | 116.2 |
Cordonnier left his corn estimates unchanged at 84 MMT for Brazil and 25 MMT for Argentina, but he has a neutral to higher bias going forward. “The next ten days will be critical for the (Brazilian) safrinha corn planting because the ideal planting window has already passed and farmers will not risk planting their corn past about March 10th,” he says. “If they can plant the corn within the next week, there is still the possibility of adequate rainfall during the critical grain filling period. If planting is delayed past March 10th, there is a significant risk that the crop will run out of moisture before it reaches maturity.”
In Argentina, Cordonnier says early harvest reports are generally better than expected. “The corn crop in Argentina is doing very well and it is hard to pinpoint any major concerns other than some localized flooding,” he reports, saying the estimate could move higher in the coming weeks if yields continue to come in as good as expected.
