South American Crop Consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier, who just returned from a two-week visit through central Brazil, says some early maturing soybeans have suffered quality declines due to ongoing wet weather, which has delayed harvest. “Some farmers are reporting the soybeans are losing weight due to fungal diseases and the soybeans might only be suitable for animal feed,” he reports.
But while wet conditions are slowing harvest in central Brazil, ample moisture is good for later-maturing soybeans that are in the midst of filling pods, says Cordonnier. “Early yield results results from before the wet weather set in are generally good and they should get better as the harvest moves into the later maturing soybeans,” he adds. “Mato Grosso is still expected to set a new record-high soybean production unless the weather continues to be excessively wet during February.”
Nationwide, AgRural estimates 4.3% of the soybean crop has been harvested, which is in line with last year at this time and compares to 3.1% on average. Due to rains delaying harvest in Mato Grosso, AgRural no longer anticipates that farmers in Mato Grosso will harvest 7 MMT of soybeans by the end of January as they had estimated in December, which keeps the window of exports open a little longer for the United States.
Cordonnier left his Brazilian soybean and corn estimates unchanged from last week and had a neutral to slightly higher bias going forward. Rains are delaying safrinha corn planting in central Brazil, but according to weather-watchers, a period of dry conditions this weekend could accelerate planting. “The eventual safrinha corn yield will be determined by the weather during April and May when most of the corn will be pollinating,” reminds Cordonnier. “The latest forecast is for normal rainfall in Mato Grosso during that period. The forecast for Parana, which is the second leading safrinha corn producer, is not as optimistic.”
| Dr. Cordonnier 2016-17 Soybean Estimates | Est. | Maximum | Minimum | 2015-16 |
in million metric tons | ||||
| Brazil | 103.0 | 105.0 | 101.0 | 95.5 |
| Argentina | 52.0 | 55.0 | 50.0 | 56.0 |
| Paraguay | 9.1 | 10.0 | 8.5 | 9.0 |
| Bolivia | 3.1 | 3.5 | 2.7 | 3.0 |
| Uruguay | 3.0 | 3.5 | 2.7 | 2.0 |
| Total | 170.2 | 177.0 | 164.9 | 165.5 |
| Dr. Cordonnier 2016-17 Corn Estimates | Est. | Maximum | Minimum | 2015-16 |
in million metric tons | ||||
| Brazil | 86.0 | 92.0 | 84.0 | 66.0 |
| Argentina | 34.0 | 35.5 | 32.0 | 27.0 |
| Paraguay | 3.2 | 4.0 | 2.7 | 3.1 |
| Bolivia | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.7 |
| Uruguay | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.4 |
| Total | 124.3 | 128.6 | 119.6 | 97.2 |
Meanwhile, Cordonnier raised his Argentine soybean crop peg by 1 MMT to 52 MMT and he has a neutral to slightly higher bias toward the crop. “It has been very hard to judge the situation of the soybean crop in Argentina. With floods in the central production areas and drought in the southern production areas, it is hard to know what is exactly occurring on the ground,” he acknowledges.
“One thing we do know is that last week’s weather in Argentina was exactly what the ‘doctor had ordered’ for the saturated areas of central Argentina. They had a week of sun, no rain and good temperatures. This has gone a long way toward stabilizing the situation in Argentina and improving the prospects for the soybeans outside of the saturated areas,” says Cordonnier. “The forecast looks generally favorable with more dry weather in the near-term forecast and then rainfall later in the week. The rainfall forecasted for later this week is expected to be moderate in intensity. If the weather continues to improve, the production estimate might increase another 1 MMT to 2 MMT.”
Cordonnier left his Argentine corn estimate unchanged and has a neutral bias toward the crop. “A week of dry weather in the core production areas has also helped to stabilize the corn crop as well with the early corn harvest expected to start very soon,” he notes. “Approximately 4% of the corn in Argentina is physically mature and the early harvest should start in early February.”
