A new study by University of Illinois agricultural economists projects that average 2008 corn yields could be reduced by 2.9 bushels per acre in Illinois, 3.5 bushels in Indiana, and 6.3 bushels in Iowa due to later-than-normal planting and above-normal precipitation in May. Soybean yields may be down 1.1 bushels, 0.4 bushels, and 1.0 bushels per acre, respectively, in those same states for the same reasons.
“The purpose of our study was to evaluate 2008 yield potential for corn and soybeans in Illinois, Indiana, and Iowa using previously developed crop weather models that estimate the impact of technology and state average monthly weather variables on state average yields,” explained Scott Irwin, a professor in the U of I Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics and lead author of the study. Department colleagues Darrel Good and Mike Tannura were co-authors.
The various models used by Irwin and his colleagues in projecting 2008 yields resulted in a wide range of forecasts of U.S. average yields for both crops. “Corn yield forecasts range from 129.3 to 163.8 bushels per acre and the soybean yield forecasts range from 37.8 to 45.3 bushels,” he said.
Irwin said that with the exception of the unfavorable July and August weather forecasts used in the models, these yield and production expectations exceed those of the USDA’s World Agricultural Outlook Board.
