By Stephanie Mercier and Vince Smith
The UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) projects that by 2050, global agricultural production will have to increase by at least 60 percent in order to feed an estimated 9.2 billion people. The FAO estimates are based on projected population and income growth over the next 36 years. Farmers are used to tackling big challenges, but climbing this mountain will require serious effort and they will need all the help they can get from the agricultural research community, the agri-business community, and policy makers.
The sheer size of the task means that farmers in the U.S. and around the world will have to step up their games to fill the production gap. Despite playing a dominant role in global markets for the major grains and oilseeds and achieving sustained production growth rates of 1.5 percent per year for the last 36 years, America’s 2.2 million farmers currently account for only about 18 percent of total global production. Asia’s producers contribute 37 percent, Europe’s 12 percent, and Latin America’s 16 percent. Even if U.S. farmers were able to double their production between now and 2050, farmers in the rest of the world would still have to increase their output by more than 50 percent in order to meet the overall target of a 60 percent increase in global crop and livestock production.
The success of farmers and ranchers in reaching these goals will depend on whether they can substantially increase the productivity of their land and other resources– more production per acre and per acre-foot of water, and through better management of their labor and equipment. Farmers in developed countries already approaching peak performance in their use of land, water, and other inputs will be most challenged in their efforts to push toward new production frontiers and will unambiguously need the agricultural research community to provide improved technologies.
In low-productivity regions, substantial gains through the more effective use of existing technologies and improved resource management may be more feasible in the short term. FAO data show, for example, that average yields of African farmers growing maize between 2011-13 were less than 40 percent of world average yields, largely due to lack of access to improved inputs such as seed, fertilizer, pesticides, and farm machinery. Reducing that yield gap by developing and disseminating seeds and other inputs that are more appropriate for smallholder farmers would go a long way to helping these farmers feed their families and their communities.
For the longer-term, continuing public and private investments in agricultural research and development are fundamentally important to raising yield ceilings and closing yield gaps. Extensive studies have shown that agricultural research consistently demonstrates a high rate of return in all countries, especially when research is complemented by expanded capacities to extend the improved agricultural technologies and cultural practices to farmers and livestock producers. American farmers are well aware of this. Few would imagine working without the support both of the U.S. land grant university system and the initiatives of private sector firms that develop seeds, equipment, and other technologies.
Advances in basic science achieved in recent years have literally transformed the potential of agricultural research and development efforts. Marker-assisted selective breeding, for instance, has emerged from the agricultural biotechnology field to help plant and animal breeders hone in more quickly on desirable traits and replicate them through conventional techniques. While the tools of science are highly portable, agricultural production is a place-based activity. Research has to be embedded in the characteristics of local regions – soil, weather, pests, and length of growing season– as well as market access and farmers’ capacities to innovate.
Since the 1950s, the U.S. government has supported agricultural research relevant to agro-ecosystems around the world -- at U.S. land grant universities, at agricultural universities and research centers in developing countries, and in the international agricultural research centers supported by the Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR). Private sector companies have also begun to expand their research investments in developing countries, recognizing that the challenge of feeding the world in 2050 is a certain driver for agricultural change. However, private sector research relies heavily on the basic research done at public institutions.
The 2014 farm bill established a new Foundation for Food and Agricultural Research to leverage greater public-private collaboration in agricultural research, complementing the work of the National Institute for Food and Agriculture and the Agricultural Research Service already managed by the U.S. Department of Agriculture. And new opportunities for international public-private partnerships are being explored. Drought-tolerant maize (corn) varieties are being developed for African countries in projects sponsored by the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) as part of its Feed the Future initiative, the CGIAR’s International Maize and Wheat Improvement Centre (CIMMYT), private companies, and various foundations. Such seeds are to be provided royalty-free and were planted on more than 3 million acres by primarily smallholder African farmers in 2013.
These early indications of a new momentum toward helping farmers feed the world are encouraging. But more will be needed.
The Farm Journal Foundation’s Farmers Feeding the World Farm Team program is building a network of American farmers who care about these issues and want to ensure that the United States remains a leader in promoting global food security. If you’d like the join this program, please check out our website: http://www.agweb.com/farmersfeedingtheworld/farm_team.aspx
Dr. Stephanie Mercier is the Senior Policy and Advocacy Adviser at Farm Journal Foundation and former Chief Economist of the Senate Agriculture Committee, and Dr. Vince Smith is a Professor of Agricultural Economics at Montana State University and the Director of the American Enterprise Institute’s (AEI) Agricultural Policy Research Initiative.
