If you follow Machinery Pete on social media, listen to “AgriTalk” or watch “Machinery Pete” TV, you’ve likely heard me say in recent months that combine values are falling. The big question is if used combine values are falling like they did 10 years ago, in 2014. During that time, commodity prices dropped and values on all types of large late-model used farm equipment followed suit and declined by 20% to 25%.
Smaller Dip So Far
We haven’t seen as large of a decline this time. A good example to illustrate this is the John Deere S780. Last year, I saw an astounding 502.6% increase in the number of S780 combines sold at auction compared with 2022. This was driven by large farm equipment dealer groups trying to get ahead of the rising used inventory curve and shoving combines from their lots out to auction between late July and December.
But despite that huge increase in the number sold at auction, there has only been a 15.8% drop in the average auction price, from $346,900 in 2022 to $291,923 in 2023.
Less Than You Expected?
Here’s why:
- There’s been a sea of change with online auctions/bidding since March 2020.
- There’s still a lot of “old money” out there buying on the auction front. The same is true with farmland.
- High advertised prices on dealer lots. For example, the current average dealer ad price on a S780 is $481,557.
Where our Machinery Pete auction price data shows a bigger drop in used combine values is with one model series older. On the John Deere side, that would be the S600 models made from 2012 to 2017. For example, a John Deere S670’s average auction price is $100,871, which is down 23.9%. Interesting to note, however, is the price held up strongest on the smallest size model of the group, the John Deere S660, which was only down 1.5% last year.
| Make | Model | Year | Hours | Price | Date | Location |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Deere | S790 | NA | NA | $151,000 | 2/24/24 | Plymouth, NC |
| John Deere | S790 | NA | 376 | $446,000 | 1/29/24 | Kennett, MO |
| Case IH | 8250 | 2023 | 310 | $439,750 | 1/27/24 | Paris, MO |
| John Deere | S780 | 2021 | 623 | $334,000 | 2/21/24 | Owensboro, KY |
| John Deere | S780 | 2020 | 1,239 | $246,500 | 2/1/24 | Indianola, MS |
| Case IH | 8250 | 2021 | 1,214 | $210,000 | 2/12/24 | Cotton Plant, AR |
| Gleaner | S68 | 2015 | 964 | $204,250 | 2/7/24 | Sutton, NE |
Our data also interestingly shines through the truth that older, yet pre-DEF model, used combines are holding their value much better. A John Deere 9770 STS model, made from 2007 to 2011, saw its average auction price of $78,228 dip only 3.9% last year.
Of course, it’s important to note I’m highlighting 2023 average auction prices on combines, and we know commodity prices slid down hard early this year.
