USDA Deputy Secretary Stephen Vaden was live on AgriTalk today with host Chip Flory to talk about the following:
- Government shutdown — 30 days and counting and its impact on WIC and SNAP funding.
- Farm economy, including aid for farmers.
- Today’s trade deal with China that includes 12 million metric tons (mmt) of U.S. soybeans in the coming weeks and a minimum of 25 mmt of soybeans each year for the next three years.
Listen to the episode:
Or here are the highlights:
Flory: There is a great hope the shutdown will end in the next 24 to 36 hours. Do you think that can happen?
Vaden: Well, that’s up to the Democrats. We need them to vote to open the government. All of the harm, including the threat to our SNAP program, food stamps, is solely because they have decided to shut the government down.
I want to make clear what’s on the table: A clean, continuing resolution that contains the same budget numbers that President Biden submitted and for which the Democrats voted a year ago. They have literally voted against the same numbers that President Biden submitted and for which they approved 14 or 15 times.
Flory: If the government is not operational on Nov. 1, what exactly does it mean for the nutrition programs, WIC and SNAP?
Vaden: WIC, we were able because it is much less expensive than SNAP, we’re talking a few hundred million dollars, to transfer money that existed in another program in order to fund WIC. WIC is currently funded for this month.
When it comes to SNAP, we are talking about more than $9 billion, with a “B,” dollars. We don’t have that type of money lying around here at USDA. You’ve heard about a contingency fund that we have, but that fund is nowhere close to $9 billion and it is meant for natural disasters.
Bottom line: If they don’t vote to reopen the government, then 40-plus million SNAP recipients will see no extra money added to their benefit cards this weekend.
Flory: President Trump has been in the spotlight of the beef industry over the past three weeks or so about his comments. He wants beef prices down, but he wants a good cattle economy too. It seems like a tricky path to navigate.
Vaden: It’s all about finding the right balance between supply and demand. As you know, and as your listeners know, our cattle supply domestically is at its lowest since the 1950s.
We at USDA have announced a series of proposals to work to increase the domestic share of the cattle market, to increase the size of our herd by making it easier to graze on public lands like we have with our forest service, by trying to get regulations that currently hinder our cattlemen out of the way. Secretary Rollins and I are focused on building the domestic herd size because we know that is where long-term stability from the cattle market will come from, and that’s beef that is raised from cattle here in the United States.
Flory: When it comes to the farm economy, row crop production, cotton producers, they’ve been feeling the stress. There’s been talk of a trade aid or financial aid payment for farmers this year. Secretary Rollins has indicated it’ll be a top priority when the government reopens. Is that still the plan?
Vaden: It is still the case, but we can’t do anything until the government reopens.
Obviously, we are excited about the announcement the President made to start off the day today, which is definitely showing its effects in the markets now, particularly for soybeans. We hope and expect this is just one of many such announcements to come. As you know, the focus is currently on China, but last week we were announcing deals with Indonesia, Vietnam, Cambodia, Pakistan and Bangladesh.
Flory: To me, that sounds like you just said it’s going to be, let’s wait and see how the markets respond before we decide if there’s going to be a financial aid package.
Vaden: Obviously, we need to see how the markets respond, and as the Secretary has already noted, we need to have a, we may need to have a bridge to next year, but how many lanes that bridge has is going to be determined by what the market does between now and then.
I know every farmer wants a market-based return instead of a check from the Treasury, and we’re beginning to see that pop in the market as the market responds to the trade deals the President is making.
Flory: Yeah, 12 million metric tons of bean sales between now and January that would be in the 2025-26 marketing year would be a positive sign. Is that the timing on this, 12 million yet this year?
Vaden: That is the timing on this, and the 25 million metric ton commitment going forward is for the following years.
I want everyone to note when we’re talking about these numbers, whether it’s 12 million metric tons for the remainder of this calendar year or 25 million metric tons for next calendar year and the year after, these are minimum purchased amounts. This is a floor, not a ceiling. We see these, particularly looking toward next year in the 25 million metric ton number, as numbers to build on.
At a minimum, the Chinese have agreed to purchase 25 million metric tons of our soybeans, and that is more than they purchased in 2024. It is more than they purchased in 2023 and represents a solid baseline of demand for our farmers to sell to China.
