With the midterms Tuesday, we continue to look at how the balance of power could impact farmers and ranchers, no matter what party holds the majority.
Ag policy advocates face a major shake-up in the next Congress with a significant turnover possible in the agriculture committees. At least nine House and five Senate Ag Committee members are leaving Congress at the end of the 119th Congress, including leadership. And the midterm could swing party power in one or both chambers, further upsetting the apple cart for agriculture.
House Control Hangs in the Balance
Washington insiders predict the Democrats will gain control of the House during the midterms. The key is if they only pick up a only few seats that will make negotiations more difficult.
“If, on the other hand, they pick up 20 seats, well, that gives Hakeem Jeffries a lot of maneuvering room,” Mary Kay Thatcher, president, M.K. Thatcher Consulting, Washington, D.C., says.
House Ag Committee Leadership in Flux
The makeup and leadership of the Ag Committees will also change. House Republicans will hold leadership elections Nov. 10, and Democrats in the new year. However, Ranking Democrat Rep. Angie Craig of Minnesota is out, and the committee chairmanship is up in the air.
“I think it’s a 50-50 shot that Republicans retain control and G.T. Thompson continues to lead the committee,” Jay Truitt, president of Policy Perspectives, based in Washington, D.C., says. “But he’s going to do that with some new faces on his side of the aisle.”
However, Thompson has already served six terms and would need to get a waiver from the Democratic party to stay in leadership.
“So, he probably will term limit out,” says Thatcher, “And then the next person in terms of seniority is Austin Scott from Georgia. Now, if you assume that the Democrats indeed take the House, there are two people that are vying for that. One is Shontel Brown from Cleveland.”
Thatcher says Brown has no farmers in her district but has worked closely with farm groups in Ohio.
Meanwhile, California Democrat Jim Costa has already thrown his hat in the ring to become the top Democrat on the committee.
“She’s going to be challenged by Jim Costa from California, who’s been interested in that job before. But, I think most people would bet on Shontel Brown being the chair or the ranking member,” Thatcher says.
Urban Representatives on Ag Committee
Truitt says Brown isn’t the only one on the ag committee with more ties to food than farming which could have an impact on how the committee tackles agricultural policy.
“Yes, they care about food. Yes, they care about SNAP. Yes, they care about a whole lot of things related to the food business, but they’re not connected to the industry in the same way,” explains Truitt. “Their local communities aren’t dependent upon them in the same way. And so it changes how, just changes how they act and what their focal points are.”
Senate Faces Major Leadership Shift
The Senate could swing either way at this point. Or end up 50-50, leaving the Republicans in control but with an equal party split on the ag committee. Leadership would also shift. Democrat Sen. Amy Klobuchar is running for governor in Minnesota and if successful, that would leave an opening as chair or ranking member.
“Michael Bennet in Colorado left the Senate, went home to run for governor, he didn’t get elected. He comes back and he would be then the senior Democrat on the committee. So Michael Bennet or Amy Klobuchar, most likely. And so that will make John Boozman the only one of the four corners that will be returning. So, big changeover in the leadership,” Thatcher says.
That leadership shift will likely stall progress on a Farm Bill or any ag policy according to retiring Senator Tina Smith of Minnesota.
“There’ll be a new ranking member or chair depending on what happens in the election and I know that all of that will have a big impact on what we’re able to accomplish, maybe the end of this year but certainly next year,” Sen. Smith says.
Majority Leader Position Critical for Ag
The party in control in the Senate is also critical as current Republican Majority Leader John Thune of South Dakota has been a strong advocate for agriculture, in contrast to Democratic Sen. Chuck Schumer.
“John Thune’s been on the House and the Senate Ag Committee, I think every year since he came to Washington. So, he knows agriculture. He understands that, he appreciates it,” Thatcher says.
“Chuck Schumer as a Majority Leader will spend probably about a minute on ag during the next two years,” Truitt says.
Ag Policy Outlook Uncertain
And if one or both chambers in Congress swing Democrat, how much ag policy gets done in the next two years?
“Zero for all practical purposes, zero,” Truitt says.
Farm Groups Prepare to Educate New Members
Regardless of who’s in power, farm groups are rolling up their sleeves and readying their members to educate and build alliances.
“When those leadership positions are identified, we’re going to be in the room working with whoever is in leadership, making sure they understand the needs of agriculture and rural America,” John Newton, vice president of public policy and economic analysis, American Farm Bureau Federation, says.
And with such a large freshman class in the 120th Congress, there will be a steep learning curve regarding agriculture.
“We’ve got members that are coming in from across the country in February. So, our goal and our preparation is to make sure when this 120th Congress gets started, the Farm Bureau is in the room, Newton says.
So, it will be more important than ever for farmers to make a seat at the table to ensure the future of ag policy in Washington.
