As President-elect Donald Trump builds his stable of cabinet officials, it’s clear a strong stance on fair trade remains a key focus. Leaders from his last administration know farmers and the ag industry are uneasy about facing another trade war.
“I know people are concerned about the tariffs, but the fact is, [Trump] looks at tariffs as a way to get their attention and eventually to get better and reciprocal trade agreements,” explained Ambassador Terry Branstad at the Agricultural Retailer Association’s (ARA) annual meeting in Houston, Texas.
The former Iowa Governor served as Ambassador to China during the first Trump administration. He had a front-row seat to the uncomfortable trade negotiations that ultimately yielded a Phase 1 agreement.
“I believe Trump will try to do as he did before — get [China’s] attention through tariffs (he’s doing the same thing with Canada and Mexico) but then try to work out a trade agreement that’s fair and reciprocal,” Branstad said. “The key there is it has to be a win-win situation.”
Trump appears to be following a similar playbook for his second term, including nominating Jamieson Greer to U.S. Trade Representative. Greer served as chief of staff to Trump’s former U.S. trade representative, Robert Lighthizer. Trump has also tapped Peter Navarro to serve as senior counselor for Trade and Manufacturing.
“During my first term, few were more effective or tenacious than Peter in enforcing my two sacred rules: buy American and hire American,” said Trump in a press release. “He helped me renegotiate unfair trade deals like NAFTA and the Korea-U.S. Free Trade Agreement and moved every one of my tariff and trade actions fast.”
Could A Phase 2 Trade Deal With China Be Next?
Branstad says he expects the administration to continue its focus on trade with China, including taking steps beyond the Phase 1 deal.
“I think we’ll see talk of a Phase 2 deal, as that was the intent when we agreed to phase 1,” Branstad said. “The problem was there wasn’t the support in China to go the extra mile and do the other things. I know the Trump team wanted to do Phase 2 and had he been re-elected at that time, I think they would have pursued it.”
Not only was China the largest market for U.S. ag exports in 2023, comprising 17% of total exports, according to USDA-ERS, they’re also a significant supplier of inputs, such as fertilizer and crop protection products. Leaders with ARA admit trade is high on their list of things to watch in the new administration.
Impact of Tariffs On Crop Protection Products
“If we start applying tariffs to any imports, we suddenly make our crop protection products much more expensive,” said Daren Coppock, president and CEO of ARA. “I don’t know if everybody has thought through all the impacts of what that might mean.”
His heightened concern follows an expanding downturn in the agricultural economy driven by falling crop prices, high production costs and interest rates making it more expensive to borrow money. Regardless of the concern, Coppock knows the industry shouldn’t expect the status quo.
“Biden did nothing for four years, so I think we’re going to see a much more aggressive approach taken [under Trump],” Branstad admits. “Some people are fearful of that, but I actually think it’s a good thing. I think it will lead to more fairness and reciprocity in terms of trade.”
While the former I-state governor admits Trump might not have had farmers top of mind early on in his last administration, he stresses that’s not the case today.
“I come from an ag state that produces ethanol and biodiesel, and we had to work very hard to get his support,” Branstad said. “We got his support, but we also had some challenges with some of the people who worked for his administration, including the EPA.”
Between Secretary of Agriculture nominee Brooke Rollins and Branstad’s son, Eric, serving in Trump’s 2016, 2020 and 2024 campaigns, Ambassador Branstad is confident of agriculture’s voice within the inner circle.
“We feel that Donald Trump will continue to be an advocate and supporter of agriculture and rural America,” Branstad said.
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