The U.S. is tightening ties with Argentina, and that’s raising eyebrows across farm country.
From a $20 billion bailout to plans to import Argentine beef, farmers and ranchers say the growing alliance feels like it’s coming at the expense of U.S. agriculture.
But according to Arlan Suderman, chief commodities economist with StoneX, there’s more to this story, and it has everything to do with China.
A Geopolitical Chess Match
“Everything’s a game of 3D chess,” Suderman explains. “At the center of it is China.”
For years, China has been strengthening ties with Argentina, investing heavily in infrastructure and agriculture to secure long-term supply lines and influence. Suderman says the U.S. sees an opportunity to pull Argentina away from Beijing’s orbit, using economic incentives to win its allegiance.
“The White House sees this as a way to create a split between Argentina and China,” Suderman says. “It’s not just about soybeans or beef. It’s about global positioning.”
The Beef Backlash
But for cattle producers, that strategy feels like betrayal. President Donald Trump’s recent talk of importing Argentine beef sparked anger across rural America. Many worry increasing imports will undercut domestic markets.
Suderman urges producers to stay calm. He points out the announced beef imports, around 80,000 metric tons, are only equal to about two day’s worth of U.S. beef production.
“It’s not enough to impact prices,” he says, “but it does show a disconnect between Washington and agriculture.”
He adds that advisers to the president might have misunderstood how ag markets work.
“These aren’t controlled industries like pharmaceuticals,” Suderman notes. “Ag markets are driven by supply and demand, and right now, we have record demand with tight supply.”
Soybean Farmers Feel Left Behind
While beef producers protest, soybean farmers are already bruised. Argentina’s temporary suspension of export taxes earlier in the year allowed them to undercut U.S. prices and quickly sell beans to China — a major blow to American growers. Suderman says it’s a reminder that the U.S. is no longer the world’s low-cost soybean producer.
“Argentina and Brazil have a cheaper currency and lower costs,” he explains. “And China has been investing there for decades.”
Suderman says he’s been warning the industry for years that the U.S. would eventually lose China as its top soybean buyer.
“This didn’t happen overnight,” Suderman says. “China has been building toward this for 20 years. The current administration may have sped it up, but it was coming.”
Beijing’s refusal to buy American and its pivot to Brazil could be less about economics and more to do with politics. “It’s a calculated decision about control and national leverage, not about getting the cheapest beans,” says one ag economist. Read more here.
Caught in a Bigger Battle
Beyond agriculture, Suderman says the real fight isn’t over soybeans — it’s over rare earth minerals. China currently controls about 90% of the world’s processed rare earths, which are essential to making electronics and advanced defense systems.
“That’s the real leverage,” he says. “Soybeans are small compared to the rare earth battle.”
The Trump administration is now trying to expand domestic rare earth supply chains, sourcing from Australia, Greenland and even within the U.S. But Suderman says it could take two to three years before those efforts meet national defense and economic needs.
What Farmers Need to Know
To many farmers, Washington’s global strategy feels like it’s coming at their expense. While the administration is playing the long game with China, rural America is paying the short-term price. Still, Suderman sees opportunity ahead if the U.S. can continue developing new markets, strengthen biofuel demand and tap into growing trade opportunities in Africa and beyond.
“We weren’t ready to give up China,” he admits, “but we need to look forward not backward.”
