Russian missiles struck two Ukrainian port cities after a series of explosions in Crimea that analysts see as part of a broader effort to dislodge Russian forces from territory in the south of the country.
The U.K.’s Ministry of Defense said Wednesday that Russian commanders would likely be “increasingly concerned with the apparent deterioration in security across Crimea, which functions as a rear base area for the occupation.”
Trade Avenues Persist
Ukraine’s first ship of humanitarian food is headed to Africa, which could help alleviate what the World Food Program calls a “global food crisis,” but one that’s particularly acute in Africa.
On Tuesday, the Lebanese-flagged carrier Brave Commander and its 23,000 or so tons of wheat cargo departed Ukraine — and it’s expected to arrive in Djibouti in about nine days.
Just three Ukrainian Black Sea ports are now exporting cargo, mostly grain, according to the terms of a paper deal struck in July between the United Nations, Russia, Ukraine, and Turkey, which hosts an inspection terminal for such vessels. Those ports are in Odesa, Chornomorsk, and Pivdennyi.
Will Wheat Get Back on Track?
U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) is providing over $68 million in additional funding to the World Food Program (WFP) to buy, move and store up to 150,000 tonnes of Ukrainian wheat, as it partnered with the Howard G. Buffett Foundation and the Minderoo Foundation in support of the first humanitarian grain shipment from the Ukrainian port of Yuzhny that departed Tuesday (Aug.16).
The U.S. has provided $4.8 billion to the WFP this year. The WSJ was the first to report the USAID funding.
Could the War in Ukraine Be Prevented?
U.S. intelligence officials knew in Oct. 2021 that Russia would invade, the Washington Post reports in “Road to War” in Ukraine article, which was published Tuesday. And American spies knew this because they allege they “had penetrated multiple points of Russia’s political leadership, spying apparatus, and military, from senior levels to the front lines,” U.S. officials told the WaPo.
That autumn analysis — featuring satellite imagery, communications intercepts, and human intelligence — was presented to White House officials, who reportedly dispatched CIA Director William Burns to Moscow to confront the Russians and warn consequences would result from an actual invasion.
When briefed to NATO allies, Germany and France thought it was bogus, and cited the botched intelligence justifying America’s Iraq invasion two decades ago. However, the Brits and allies in the Baltics were convinced, according to the WaPo. Even Ukrainian officials were deeply skeptical at first, including Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba.
More at Stake
Germany will keep nuclear power a little longer. Facing a historic energy crisis, it will run its remaining three nuclear plants through the winter, pausing a long-term national policy to phase them out.
The reversal comes as the German energy regulator warned that the country may not have enough fuel stored for winter should Russia, its main natural gas supplier, completely shut off supplies.
But electricity isn’t’ Germany’s only worry. Germany’s main industry lobbying group warned that factories may have to slow or even halt production temporarily due to the drop in water levels along the Rhine River, a key shipping artery for Western Europe, after levels fell to a new record low.
“The ongoing drought and the low water levels threaten the supply security of industry,” Holger Loesch, deputy head of German business lobby group, BDI, told the Associated Press.
He warned that droughts like this could become more frequent in the years to come, and asked leaders in Berlin to react more quickly to weather conditions that could affect the Rhine or other waterways.
Many barges will not ship cargo along the Rhine when its levels drop below 40 cm. “It’s only a question of time before facilities in the chemical and steel industry have to be switched off, petroleum and construction materials won’t reach their destination, and high-capacity and heavy-goods transports can’t be carried out anymore,” Loesch said, citing fear of bottlenecks, especially for key energy supplies.
The Rhine is the most important river for delivery of diesel, coal, and other commodities in the region, as we previously highlighted. Low water levels also mean utilities could end up using more gas as an alternative — a dangerous situation that could exacerbate the bloc’s ongoing gas crisis.
More on trade:
Ukraine Successfully Shipped Some Grain Out This Week, But Could Now Face a Bigger Challenge
John Phipps: Are Tariffs Part Of The Problem With Inflation?
China Is Now Retaliating Against Taiwan By Slapping Export And Import Suspensions On Certain Products, Goods
