Chinese President Xi Jinping will make a state visit to the United States from September 23 to 25 at the invitation of President Donald Trump. While the meeting has been on the U.S. agenda for months, China’s Foreign Ministry officially announced Jinping’s attendance on Monday, setting the stage for a high-profile meeting that farmers and agribusiness leaders are watching closely for signs of what comes next on trade.
According to the ministry, Xi and Trump will hold in-depth discussions on major issues in the U.S.-China relationship, along with broader questions of world peace and development. Trump is scheduled to greet Xi on Wednesday when he arrives at Joint Base Andrews, kicking off a visit to the White House that will include bilateral meetings and a state dinner.
AgDay’s Michelle Rook reports all eyes are on the outcome of this week’s U.S.-China summit and whether it extends the one-year trade truce. Market sources tell Rook this round of negotiations is one of the toughest yet, covering rare earth minerals, semiconductors and agriculture. But there are key ag question being whether China will drop its tariffs on U.S. goods and offer more clarity on the additional purchases promised at the earlier Busan meeting.
U.S. Reportedly Proposes Six-Month Extension to Trade Truce
Adding another layer to this week’s summit: the U.S. has proposed extending its trade truce with China by six months, the New York Times reported Monday morning. China, for its part, has pushed for an even longer extension than what the U.S. has put on the table, according to the report.
The current truce , which holds tariffs at existing levels while the two sides negotiate, is set to expire Nov. 10. That deadline gives this week’s Trump-Xi meeting added weight, as any agreement reached in Washington could shape whether the truce is extended, and for how long, before it lapses.
Rare Earths, Tariffs and Ag Purchases All on the Table
This week’s visit follows Trump’s state trip to Beijing in May, and comes after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Sunday that recent trade talks with Chinese officials had gone smoothly. Bessent, speaking in New York, says the two sides made progress on trade and artificial intelligence, building on discussions that began in Beijing. He says a newly created Board of Trade and early AI cooperation efforts were “operationalized” as of Sunday evening.
U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, who joined Bessent for the New York talks, has proposed using that Board of Trade as a forum where U.S. and Chinese officials can work through which goods can be traded sustainably between the two countries, as opposed to products falling under sensitive-technology categories that raise national security concerns.
AI is shaping up to be a bigger part of the conversation than in past meetings between the two leaders. Trump has dismissed warnings about AI’s existential risks as a “hoax,” a stance that aligns broadly with Beijing’s own posture, according to analysts. That shared skepticism, combined with intense competition to lead in the technology and ongoing mutual distrust, has slowed progress on AI safeguards and regulation between the two countries.
What the Meeting Means for Soybeans and Beyond
Market experts expect that in exchange for the U.S. holding China’s tariff rate at 20% or below, Beijing will drop its 10% reciprocal tariff on U.S. grains and oilseeds, a move that would make it economical for private Chinese companies to start buying again.
“Those 10% tariffs are going to come down. I do expect it,” says Dan Basse, president of Ag Resource Company to Rook. “And when that happens, that means that that prorated $17 billion — I think $14 billion for this year — can be acted upon. And I think China needs to buy grains, corn and wheat, if that is indeed what’s going to happen.”
There’s growing consensus that China will spell out details on ag purchases beyond soybeans before the U.S. midterm elections, likely at this week’s meeting. Arlan Suderman, chief commodities economist at StoneX, says the $17 billion target beyond the 25 million metric tons of soybeans is still largely unaddressed.
“They have obviously bought some ag commodities. They’ve been buying pork. They’ve bought some grain sorghum, but that’s been very limited lately,” Suderman adds.
For agriculture, the meeting’s biggest question mark remains how much more China is willing to commit to buying from U.S. farmers. Soybean prices retested recent highs last week, and Mike Castle, senior commodities economist with StoneX Group, says the market’s attention has shifted almost entirely to this week’s summit.
“Pretty much everyone’s focus at this point is on the meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping coming to the U.S.,” Castle said late last week. “You haven’t seen much in terms of flash sales announced last week. I think everyone’s kind of waiting on the sidelines for that.”
Last year, China committed to buying at least $17 billion annually in U.S. agricultural products through 2028, plus an additional 25 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans per year.
So far, China’s state-owned entities have been buying U.S. soybeans toward their 25 million metric ton commitment, with Pro Farmer estimating sales just shy of 16 million metric tons, though some destinations remain unknown.
Suderman says those purchases could pick up once the USTR’s Board of Trade — the mechanism meant to track China’s commitments — is formally rolled out, which he expects to happen alongside the summit.
“I anticipate we will get it at this meeting,” he says. “There’s already been a lot of work done on it. We’ve seen some progress on it, and they’ve started already holding meetings from what I understand.”
Castle notes that domestic crush demand has changed how much weight Chinese purchases carry.
“Over 60% of our soybeans are now used domestically, so we’re not as reliant on that export market,” he says. “So when we see meaningful purchases like this, it tightens up the balance sheet that much more. It is driving that rally that we’ve seen.”
Castle says at this point, China is a little over halfway to that 25 million tons on soybeans. What’s driving the purchases isn’t really supply and demand, according to Castle.
“It’s important to keep in mind it’s really not about economics at this time, which obviously, as an economist, pains me to say,” he says. “They are doing this for political favor. This is about them getting more access to the U.S. consumer market, kind of lowering trade tensions between the world’s two largest economies.”
He adds that China is paying a premium to buy American even though cheaper supply is available elsewhere: “South America is cheaper than us. You’re still making those purchases to gain that political favor.”
Still, uncertainty looms. There’s been concern the meeting could be scrapped if President Xi objects to U.S. arms sales to Taiwan, along with unconfirmed rumors about Xi’s health. Suderman downplays those fears.
“There’s lot of rhetoric, but it’ll still happen. I will be shocked if it doesn’t happen,” he says. “I think they both have too much to lose, and so I expect it to happen.”
Ahead of the summit, the American Soybean Association pushed the administration for a firm schedule of soybean purchases, along with elimination of both the reciprocal tariffs and Section 301 shipping fees.
Will China Buy More than Soybeans?
Beyond soybeans, Castle says there’s talk of China expanding into other commodities, but nothing is locked in yet. Leading up to the meeting, the National Sorghum Producers (NSP) pushed for China to buy U.S. sorghum.
“Certainly rumors, but no confirmation at this point,” he says. “That’s one other thing to watch for next week’s meeting. Do we see an announcement that actually leads to purchases of something other than soy at this point?”
Brad Lubben, an Extension associate professor and policy specialist, says the broader demand picture for agriculture is being shaped as much by policy as by markets.
“We look at the broad mix of demand components that the ag sector is looking for, hoping for, promising,” he says. “We’re always looking to exports to help pull that market up. We’ve also looked to bioenergy as sort of the foundation of future demand growth. Both of those are so policy-driven. It’s not just an economic question, it’s a political question.”
Lubben says the current trade landscape defies easy comparison to years past.
“Look at the policy framework for trade, and it is maybe more convoluted now than it’s ever been,” he says. “We’re not sort of relying on the hopes of trade for all. We’re dealing country by country, deal by deal, to try and figure out what our future looks complicated.”
Former USTR Lighthizer: China Will Honor U.S. Ag Purchases, but Only in the Short Term
Former U.S. Trade Representative Bob Lighthizer addressed at the Iowa Economic Summit in July, and he told farmers not to expect China to be a reliable buyer over the long haul, even as he predicted Beijing would meet its near-term obligations.
Lighthizer said China recently committed to purchase at least $17 billion in U.S. ag products, in addition to the 25 million metric tons of soybeans annually for three years, and that he expected Beijing to follow through — for now.
“I think that China will live up to it in the short term,” Lighthizer said. “If you’re depending long term on China as a key part of your export market, there’s a lot of risk. Just an enormous amount of risk. That’s geopolitical risk and economic risk, and their own domestic policy is contrary to being dependent on these kinds of imports.”
His reasoning tracks closely with what Castle and Lubben are describing: as long as Trump keeps pressure on Beijing, Lighthizer argued China has incentive to honor the deal in the near term. But Lighthizer cautioned farmers against reading too much into that goodwill.
“I would say, yes, but you got to be clear-eyed, you got to take off the rose-colored glasses,” he said, when asked whether China is still a market worth pursuing.
He argued Beijing’s motivations have shifted from purely commercial to geopolitical.
“China, for perfectly valid reasons, doesn’t want to be dependent on imports. And China has other reasons to favor Brazil,” Lighthizer said. “So, in the meantime, my advice is take advantage, sell and do what you can, but realize that long range, you’re going to have to figure out an alternative.”
That warning adds context to this week’s summit: even a strong showing on soybean purchases may say more about short-term political maneuvering than a durable shift in China’s role as a buyer of U.S. agricultural goods.
