The presidential race is a close one, according to election analysts. And when it comes to agriculture, there’s an immense focus on the potential impact on trade, inflation, farm policy and biofuels.
Ahead of the election, the October Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor asked economists which presidential candidate will be better for agriculture on taming inflation, providing more certainty on farm policy, as well as more likely to support biofuels policies. The Monthly Monitor is an anonymous survey of 70 ag economists from across the U.S.
- On the question of which candidate would be more effective at taming inflation, 53 percent said Donald Trump.
- When it comes to providing more certainty on farm policy and crop insurance, 61 percent of economists said Trump will provide more certainty.
- However, when looking at policies that benefit biofuels, 53 percent of economists said Kamala Harris.
45Z and Biofuels Tax Credit in Question
Today, there is no clarity on 45Z that’s causing soybean processors like Cargill and Bunge to possibly slow or even idle production by the end of the year.
“We have industry looking to shut down production of biofuel. If we don’t get the 45Z requirements here released soon, and that doesn’t look likely, unfortunately, that’s going to hurt demand for soybean crushing for soybeans per se,” Suderman said.
“The fact that we don’t have those today, I think, is impeding investment in the sector. And people are asking for that before they spend millions of dollars to do that. And I think that has been a hiccup,” said Brown.
Role of the Federal Government
Heading into a crucial election with not just the presidential race, but also the House and Senate, the October Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor asked, “What is the most important role of the federal government?”
Forty-six percent of economists ranked financial aid as the top priority. Nearly 43 percent said it’s passing a farm bill.
“There’s all this discussion that the safety net is inadequate relative to commodity programs, and there’s the potential for some rather large ARC and PLC payments to come,” said Brown. “But are they too late? That’s the question. Is it too late in the cycle? Does any type of ad hoc support through a farm financial package bridge that gap?”
The October survey of economists also asked them to weigh in on the fate of the farm bill. The majority of economists think Congress will pass a new farm bill in 2025, but 21 percent think it could be 2026 before it crosses the finish line.
Your Next Reads:
Presidential Poll Results: How Farmers and Economists View Candidates’ Impact on Agriculture
Will USDA Fumble The 45Z Football?
Which Presidential Candidate Would Have the Biggest Impact on Ag?
A Possible Recession Still Hangs Over the Ag Economy, But Positive Shifts Are Starting to Surface
