The U.S. agricultural trade deficit hit a record $28.6 billion the first half of 2025, according to data released from USDA.
It’s due to weak production growth, increased demand for imported food and ongoing trade conflicts.
In June alone, the value of U.S. agricultural exports trailed imports by $4.1 billion. It’s a gap that’s 14% wider than a year ago.
Not Time To Panic
The trade deficit is one of the main reasons President Trump has given for why he’s imposing tariffs and working on new trade deals.
But former USDA chief economist Joe Glauber, who is now a senior research fellow with the International Food Policy Research Institute, says the trade imbalance is not as alarming as it looks on the surface.
He says that’s partly because the U.S. imports many products it can’t grow — like seasonal produce.
“We kind of define ‘What are agricultural exports?’ and ‘What are agricultural imports?’” Glauber says. “They’re very different in one sense. In fact, we export a lot of bulk commodities like corn, wheat and soybeans and import a lot of fresh fruits and vegetables. And there are obviously some products that compete against each other, but by and large, we’re importing and exporting very different things.”
Skewed Definition
Furthermore, the definition of what constitutes an ag export includes some bulk commodities, but not their value-added end product.
“We import calves and feeder cattle from Canada and Mexico, we import hogs from Canada that are then finished and slaughtered. Whats showing up as imports is actually a part of the production process,” he adds.
Lower Grain Prices Are a Factor
The widening deficit marks a historic reversal for U.S. ag, which ran major trade surpluses for the past five decades. But Glauber says for the last three years, the data has been skewed as prices for bulk commodities, like grain, have fallen — especially compared to the $200 billion of ag exports in 2022.
“If you were to consider what we exported last year in terms of volume and valued them at the prices in 2022, we’d be back at the $200 billion marker. So, with almost no deficit if the prices were reversed,” he explains.
That’s why Glauber says he’s not overly concerned about the trade imbalance.
“I think a surplus or deficit, as far as I’m concerned, is meaningless. What is really important, I think, is improving market access for U.S. agricultural products.”
The Exception
One exception is China, where the trade war has cut exports in half.
Commerce department data shows the U.S. exported just $5.5 billion to China the first half of 2025 — verses $11.8 billion last year.
In June alone, exports were the lowest since 2010, with no soybeans at all.
