Worst Winter Storm in a Decade Sets Sights on Weekend Mayhem

Weather models are predicting one of the biggest winter storms in years as an arctic cold front shoulders its way south, setting a collision course with subtropical moisture from the Gulf. The result could be up to 2' of snow, freezing rain, up to an inch of ice and temperatures in the single digits across more than 2,000 miles from Texas to the Carolinas.

“We’re talking about probably once in a decade type event here,” says USDA Meteorologist Brad Rippey. “We haven’t seen a storm like this in exactly 10 years, since Jan. 22 and 23 of 2016.”

He says that storm that brought 18" to 30" of snow to Washington, D.C., but had a much larger impact across the Lower 48. This storm is different because it combines not just precipitation but also bitter cold.

“There’s going be some 1' to 2' [snow] totals stretching across the Ozarks plateau, probably just south of the Ohio river and possibly into the northern mid-Atlantic,” Rippey says. “South of that is where we could see extended power outages related to ice accumulations that could be 0.5" to 1".”

Watch for Ice and Bitter Cold

Rippey says the heaviest ice impacts are likely to be from northeastern Texas across to the mid-south. Power outages are expected and restoration of services are likely to take several days or even weeks, depending on the severity.

For the areas that don’t see heavy snow or ice, the issue will be bitterly cold temperatures. Parts of North Dakota, across the upper Great Lakes, expect temperatures of -30°F. While the North will see the worst of the cold, the outbreak is likely to be felt across two-thirds of the country, including the South.

“This is a part of the country where cattle are not accustomed to this type of environment,” Rippey adds. “It’s going to be important to try to guard against getting too wet and too cold.”

Operations that have cows calving in the northern Plains normally have calving facilities, but in the southern Plains and Southeast, that may not be the case. Veterinarians suggest livestock owners develop a contingency plan to be ready for the impending storm.

“Can you get power to your wells or your tank heaters,” asks Dr. Robin Falkner, a technical service veterinarian with Elanco Animal Health. “Can you crank your tractor? Do you have the water you need or can you feed your cattle? Where’s your best hay? Can you get to it? Can you roll out some bales of hay to get them off the cold, wet ground? What can you do to make sure your system doesn’t collapse?”

(NWS)

Rippey says for parts of the southern Plains, this could be the biggest winter weather event since the great arctic outbreak of February 2021. He believes winter wheat producers will also need to keep an eye on the crop in areas where it might have extended exposure to subzero temperatures.

What’s Driving This Storm

While you can blame La Niña for the dryness across the country, this incoming winter storm system isn’t happening in isolation. Eric Snodgrass, senior science fellow with Nutrien Ag Solutions, says the broader weather pattern favors repeated intrusions of Arctic air, which helps fuel winter storms farther south than usual.

“The reality is this: Unlocking more Arctic air is a possibility through the remainder of January and February,” he says. “So I don’t think we’re done with this more southern storm track.”

That doesn’t necessarily mean every storm will be this severe. He says there could be a couple more winter storms before this winter is over, but he doesn’t think they’ll be at the velocity of this one. Rippey adds that this doesn’t appear to be the beginning of a new cold and stormy weather pattern. He calls it a one-storm anomaly and expects the cold and winter weather to return to its northern perch by mid-February.

Snodgrass points out what’s missing from the pattern is just as important as what’s present. He says the absence of El Niño is a major reason the U.S. has leaned so heavily on cold air to generate precipitation.

“What we don’t have is what we want, which is El Niño,” he says. “If we had an El Niño, I’d be talking about nonstop flow out of the southwest, kicking off storms through the mid-South, the Delta.”

Instead, farmers are dealing with a colder, harsher setup.

“This winter though, we’ve got to get Arctic air down in order to kick off good snows across these drier places,” Snodgrass says.

The Silver Lining: Moisture

The only silver lining might be the moisture the storm brings to areas currently experiencing drought or dryness.

“We have seen more than 40% of the country in varying degrees of drought each week, going back to mid-September,” Rippey says. “Once this snow and ice begins to melt, it will percolate into the soils and actually could provide quite a benefit for some of those drought-stricken areas in the South where we’ve had trouble with pasture conditions and surface water supplies.”

“If you look from the southern Plains through the Delta and mid-South and look at the, since the beginning of winter, Dec. 1, the rank of how dry it’s been, it’s like in the top five,” Snodgrass says. “And in some places, the driest start to anyone on record.”

That context makes the incoming storm especially critical. While travel disruptions, ice and power outages are likely, Snodgrass emphasizes the sheer amount of moisture involved.

“I hate it that it’s a massive winter storm, and it’s extremely disruptive, and it is going be a problem,” he says. “But there’s up to 3" of liquid in this, and we need every bit of that.”

How Long will the Cold Last

For producers watching soil moisture and river levels, Snodgrass offers perspective but also encourages patience.

“Spring can undo all of winter’s sins,” he says. “So by the time we get into March and April, we can recover these significant losses in soil. The rivers can come back up, and we can start to see a better start.”

Still, the concern isn’t evenly spread across the country. In southern Texas, drought pressure is already immediate.

“You have to remember, right now in Texas, they’re already scratching dirt and planting corn,” Snodgrass says “So you’ve got folks down there that are more concerned about this drought because it’s hitting them right now.”

For most of the Corn Belt and Plains, Snodgrass says waiting might be the best course of action.

“For the rest of us, we can be patient and wait,” he says. “And that’s what I would advise folks to do for the next couple of months.”