2-Minute Drill: Soybeans and Copper
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Grain futures were uniformly green today, for the first time in what seems like a lifetime. At the close March corn was 7 ½ cents higher settling at 447 ¾. That erased all of the previous day’s losses and then some. March soybeans settled the day 24 ½ cents higher to 1218 ¾, that was 31 cents off of the early morning low. And on the wheat side, it was higher as well with the most actively traded March contract setting the day 12 cents higher to 605 ½.
Some analysts were attributing today’s “turnaround Tuesday” to short covering from Managed Money head of the last trading day of the month, tomorrow. The most recent commitment of traders report showed Managed Money holding a net short position in corn to the tune of 265k futures/options contracts, their largest position since 2020. For soybeans, Managed money have been net sellers for 10 consecutive weeks, growing their net short position to 92k contracts, which is also the largest net short position since 2020.
Weather conditions continue to be monitored closely in Argentina and Brazil as it remains influential on their overall production. But as we inch closer to spring in the united states, talk of weather in the US and prospective planting estimates will start to work it’s way into the daily newswires. It all seems so far away but it will be here before we know it!
Livestock markets saw gains across the board today with live cattle, feeder cattle, and lean hogs all posting a higher close. April live cattle futures finished the day 52 cents higher to settle at 181.75. March feeder cattle settled the day 2.70 higher to 241.32. Despite today’s strength, prices were unable to take out the highs from the prior two sessions. On the snout side it was a green day as well with the most actively traded April contract leading the way, settling 1.47 higher to 84.90.
This morning’s wholesale boxed beef report was mixed with choice cuts 96 cents lower to 298.46 while select cuts gained 38 cents to 289.20. Yesterday afternoon’s daily livestock summary from the USDA showed the 5-area average price for live steers at 175.44, that’s firm with what we’ve seen over the last few weeks. Daily slaughter was reported at 125,000 head, up 10k head from last week and about 5k more than the same period last year.
The biannual cattle inventory will be released tomorrow afternoon. The average analyst estimate sees the US cattle heard falling by 1.7 million head form the same time a year ago. If realized, that would be the lowest January 1st level since 1951. Analysts expect the 2023 calf crop to be down 2.3% year over year to 33.7 million head.
Matthew Bresnahan, Market Strategist
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