All Eyes on Today’s USDA Report
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USDA REPORT ESTIMATES
Corn
Technicals (March)
Corn futures were fractionally lower in the early morning trade but traded back to fractionally higher following CONABs crop report which showed another a drop in production estimates. Of course, we also have a USDA report out this morning that will have an impact on today’s price action. The Bulls want to get back on the shelf that they fell off of yesterday, that comes in above 435. That’s just step one, they have plenty of work left to do to actually turn the tide, which would be a close out above 450-453 1/4.
Bias: Neutral
Resistance: 440-441**, 450-453 1/4****
Pivot: 435-436 1/2
Support: 425**
Fundamental Notes
Brazil Crop Estimates
Conab estimates the Brazilian corn crop at 113.7 mmt, down from the 117.6 in January’s report. In January the USDA estimated the crop to be 127.0. The average analyst estimate for today’s report comes in at 124.8.
Weekly Export Sales
Net sales of 1,219,300 MT for 2023/2024 were up 1 percent from the previous week and 25 percent from the prior 4-week average. This was towards the upper end of expectations.
Seasonal Tendencies
(updated on Mondays)
Below is a look at historical seasonal averages for March corn futures (updated each Monday) VS today’s prices (black line).
*Past performance is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
Fund Positioning
(updated on Mondays)
Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed Funds expanded their net short position for the fifth consecutive week, growing it to 280,151 futures/options contracts. The largest net short position since June 9th, 2020. In the year prior (April 16th, 2019) we saw Funds as short as 307,529 contracts.
Soybeans
Technicals (March)
Technically speaking, I think you could really make the case for 40 cents in either direction from this pivot pocket near $12.00. A lot of that may be hinging on today’s USDA report. If recent lows are taken out, that gives way to the May/June lows from 1145-1157. On the upside1230-1235 is our 3-star resistance pocket.
Bias: Neutral
Resistance: 1221-1223**, 1230-1235*** 1250-1260****
Pivot: 1198-1203
Support: 1175-1176**, 1145-1157****
Fundamental Notes
Brazil Crop Estimates
Conab estimates the Brazilian soybean crop at 149.4 mmt, down from the 155.3 in January’s report. In January the USDA estimated the crop to be 177.0. The average analyst estimate for today’s report comes in at 153.7.
Weekly Export Sales
Net sales of 340,800 MT for 2023/2024 were up noticeably from the previous week, but down 24 percent from the prior 4-week average. This was below the low end of expectations.
Seasonal Tendencies
Below is a look at historical seasonal averages for March soybean futures VS this year’s price (black line), updated each Monday.
*Past performance is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
Commitment of Traders Snapshot
(updated on Mondays)
Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed funds were net sellers for the 11th straight week, expanding their net short position to 108,247 futures/options contracts. This is the largest net short position since December 10th, 2019 which stood at 112,528 contracts. Earlier in 2019 Funds were as short as 168,835 futures/options contracts.
Wheat
Technicals (March)
Wheat futures continue to look very indecisive here in our pivot pocket from 595 3/4-600. Support to the downside remains intact from 573-578. Resistance on the upside also remains intact, that comes in from 608 1/2-611.
Bias: Neutral/Bullish
Resistance: 608 1/2-611**, 618-622****
Pivot: 595 3/4-600
Support: 573-578***
Fundamental Notes
Weekly Export Sales
Net sales of 378,400 MT for 2023/2024 were up 17 percent from the previous week, but down 6 percent from the prior 4-week average. This was within the range of expectations.
Seasonal Tendencies
Below is a look at historical seasonal averages for March Chicago wheat futures VS this year’s price (black line), updated each Monday.
*Past performance is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
Commitment of Traders Snapshot
(updated on Mondays)
Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed little change in the Managed Money net position. Funds are seen to be net short about 65k futures/options contracts, only about 300 more contracts than last week.
Oliver Sloup, VP & Co-Founder, Blue Line Futures
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