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Corn
Technicals (March)
March corn futures were lower early in yesterday’s trade but were able to reverse higher into the afternoon and close. Prices in the early morning trade are flirting with our pivot pocket from 466 1/2-470. If the Bulls can chew through this pocket, we could see a short covering rally take prices another dime higher before hitting the next roadblock. Looking at historical seasonality we see that corn has shown the ability to firm in the first quarter. MRCI narrows it down a little more, siting that May corn futures have been able to rally from January 13th to February 6th for 13 of the last 15 years (not a recommendation). If you’d like more details on the history of this particular seasonal, please reach out to our trade desk.
Bias: Neutral/Bullish
Resistance: 481-484***, 493-496 1/2****
Pivot: 466 1/2-470
Support: 450**
Seasonal Tendencies
Below is a look at historical seasonal averages for March corn futures (updated each Monday) VS today’s prices (black line).
*Past performance is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
Commitment of Traders Snapshot
(updated on Mondays)
Below is a snapshot of the most recent Commitment of Traders report which showed Managed Money (Funds) holding a net short position to the tune of roughly 178k contracts, one of the largest net short positions they’ve held since June of 2020.
Soybeans
Technicals (March)
March soybean futures have been able to consolidate over the last over the last 24 hours following a rough start to the new year. The Bulls need to continue defending 1262 1/4-1266 1/4 to keep their hopes alive of a short-term bottom. A failure to do so could lead to another “woosh” lower. On the flip side, if we see prices would back above our pivot pocket from 1282-1285, we could see the market work to close the gap from Monday morning, which comes in near 1296.
Bias: Neutral/Bullish
Resistance: 1295-1300****, 1325-1330***
Pivot: 1282-1285
Support: 1262 1/4-1266 1/4, 1250**, 1230-1235***
Seasonal Tendencies
Below is a look at historical seasonal averages for March soybean futures VS this year’s price (black line), updated each Monday.
*Past performance is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
Commitment of Traders Snapshot
(updated on Mondays)
The most recent Commitment of Traders report showed funds holding a net long position of 4,767 futures and options contract, broken down that is 70,617 longs VS 65,850 shorts. It is the smallest net long position since the back half of October.
Wheat
Technicals (March)
March wheat futures broke lower yesterday which opened the door for a retest of the low end of the recent range, we defined this in yesterday’s report as 591 1/2-595. From a risk/reward standpoint, it’s not a terrible spot for the Bulls to give it a shot. However, a break and close below would be the “tap out area”, as it could lead to accelerated selling pressure towards 570.
Bias: Neutral
Resistance: 618-622***, 637-639**, 645-650***
Pivot: 608 1/2-611
Support: 591 1/2-595***, 570**
Seasonal Tendencies
Below is a look at historical seasonal averages for March Chicago wheat futures VS this year’s price (black line), updated each Monday.
*Past performance is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
Oliver Sloup, VP & Co-Founder, Blue Line Futures
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