Check out Oliver Sloup on CME Group discuss Corn, soybeans, and wheat all higher in today’s trade, 2/20/24.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ehq8VFxltgc
Corn
Technicals (March)
March corn futures were able to rally in yesterday’s trade but fell flat 1/2 cent away from our pivot pocket. Even with yesterday’s firm price action, the Bulls still have their work cut out for them, depicted by the chart below. If the Bulls can chew through 422-425 that could spark a bigger relief rally into March options expiration on Friday.
Bias: Neutral/Bullish
Resistance: 435-436 1/2***, 450-453 1/4****
Pivot: 422-425
Support: 415-416
Fundamental Notes
- The first flash sale since February 8th was reported yesterday morning. Private exporters reported 155,000 metric tons of corn for delivery sold to Japan during the 2024/2025 marketing year.
- Weekly export inspections were reported at 918,610 MT, inline with expectations and up from last week’s 892,335 metric tons.
Seasonal Tendencies
(updated on Mondays)
Below is a look at historical seasonal averages for March corn futures (updated each Monday) VS today’s prices (black line).
*Past performance is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
Fund Positioning
(updated on Mondays)
Funds were net sellers of corn for the seventh consecutive week, expanding their net short position to a whopping 314,341 futures and options contracts. This is inching closer and closer to the record short position of 322,215 contracts, set in April of 2019.
Soybeans |
Technicals (March)
March soybeans had a choppy day yesterday but were able to finish in positive territory. However, that momentum has failed to carry over into the overnight and early morning trade as futures prices flounder around our pivot pocket from 1175-1176. The Bulls want to see consecutive closes above this pocket to spur additional relief to the market. Keep in mind that Friday is March options expiration, which could play a role in price action.
Bias: Neutral
Resistance: 1198-1205 1/2***, 1221-1223**, 1230-1235***
Pivot: 1175-1176
Support: 1145-1157****
Fundamental Notes
- Yesterday’s flash sale was the first since February 8th. Private exporters reported 228,000 metric tons of soybean meal for delivery to the Philippines during the 2023/2024 marketing year.
- Weekly export inspections were reported at 1,185,885 MT, inline with expectations but down from last week’s 1,342,086 metric tons.
Seasonal Tendencies
Below is a look at historical seasonal averages for March soybean futures VS this year’s price (black line), updated each Monday.
*Past performance is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
Commitment of Traders Snapshot
(updated on Mondays)
Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed Funds were net sellers yet again, extending the streak to 13 consecutive weeks, a new record. They are now net short 134,500 futures and options contracts, the fifth largest net short on record.
Wheat
Technicals (March)
March Chicago wheat futures had an impressive day yesterday but as with corn and soybeans, has failed to materialize into carryover strength to start today’s trade. Previous support is the first hurdle the Bulls want to overcome, that comes in from 573-578. A close above here could spark a move back towards the technically and psychologically significant $6.00 level.
Bias: Neutral
Resistance: 595 3/4-600***, 608 1/2-611**
Pivot: 573-578
Support: 555-558****
Fundamental Notes
Weekly export inspections were reported at 380,774 MT, inline with expectations but down from last week’s 407,524 metric tons.
Seasonal Tendencies
Below is a look at historical seasonal averages for March Chicago wheat futures VS this year’s price (black line), updated each Monday.
*Past performance is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
Commitment of Traders Snapshot
(updated on Mondays)
Managed Money continue to seem fairly comfortable with their position in wheat as there is yet again little change from the previous week. Funds are net short about 56k contracts, which as you can see from the chart below is fairly steady with where they’ve been for the better part of the last two months.
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Blue Line Futures is a member of NFA and is subject to NFA’s regulatory oversight and examinations. However, you should be aware that the NFA does not have regulatory oversight authority over underlying or spot virtual currency products or transactions or virtual currency exchanges, custodians or markets. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you considering your financial condition.
With Cyber-attacks on the rise, attacking firms in the healthcare, financial, energy and other state and global sectors, Blue Line Futures wants you to be safe! Blue Line Futures will never contact you via a third party application. Blue Line Futures employees use only firm authorized email addresses and phone numbers. If you are contacted by any person and want to confirm identity please reach out to us at info@bluelinefutures.com or call us at 312- 278-0500
