Grain Markets are Firm to Start the Week. Will it Last?
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Corn
Technicals (March)
Corn futures continued to bleed lower to end last week’s trade, marking new contract lows and the lowest prices since 2020. Prices are attempting to recover in the early morning trade, but the Bulls have a lot of work ahead of them. Previous support from 435-436 1/2 will now act as resistance. The Bulls will want to achieve a close above this pocket to have a chance of sparking any meaningful short covering.
Bias: Neutral/Bullish
Resistance: 440-441**, 450-453 1/4****
Pivot: 435-436 1/2
Support: 425**
Fundamental Notes
- Weekly export inspections will be out at 10:00am CT. Last week’s inspections were reported at 624,295 metric tons.
- The 100th USDA Outlook Forum starts on Thursday. Data will include seeding estimates, ending stocks and more. Many analysts see corn seedings coming in from 91-92 million acres.
Seasonal Tendencies
(updated on Mondays)
Below is a look at historical seasonal averages for March corn futures (updated each Monday) VS today’s prices (black line).
*Past performance is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
Fund Positioning
(updated on Mondays)
Funds were net sellers of corn for the sixth consecutive week, expanding their net short position to 297,744 futures and options contracts. This is the largest net short position since the spring of 2019, when they accumulated a net short position to the tune of 322,215 contracts.
Soybeans
Technicals (March)
March soybeans are attempting to carve out a low near 1180 with prices defending that area multiple times last week and again to start the week. Prices are higher in the early morning trade, inching closer to our pivot pocket from 1198-1205 1/2. If the Bulls can chew through this pocket, it could spark a move back above 1220. If the market were to make it to that point, we would view that as a short-term inflection point for the market.
Bias: Neutral
Resistance: 1221-1223**, 1230-1235*** 1250-1260****
Pivot: 1198-1205 1/2
Support: 1175-1176**, 1145-1157****
Fundamental Notes
- Weekly export inspections will be out at 10:00am CT. Last week’s inspections were reported at 1,426,472 metric tons.
- The 100th USDA Outlook Forum starts on Thursday. Data will include seeding estimates, ending stocks and more. Many analysts see soybean seedings coming in from 85-87 million acres.
Seasonal Tendencies
Below is a look at historical seasonal averages for March soybean futures VS this year’s price (black line), updated each Monday.
*Past performance is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
Commitment of Traders Snapshot
(updated on Mondays)
Funds were net sellers of soybeans for the 12th consecutive week, growing their net short position to 130,300 futures/options contracts. Broken down that is 174,668 shorts versus 44,368 longs. This is the largest net short position since 2019 when the amassed a record net short position of 168,835 contracts.
Wheat
Technicals (March)
The wheat chart is starting to look more and more like an EKG test, with moves up and down seemingly every other day, only to remain mostly sideways. The Bulls will want to see a close back above our pivot pocket from 595 3/4-600 to help spur another leg higher.
Bias: Neutral/Bullish
Resistance: 608 1/2-611**, 618-622****
Pivot: 595 3/4-600
Support: 573-578***
Fundamental Notes
The US dollar continues to be watched closely as it generally has an inverse correlation with commodity markets. If the Dollar starts to stall out or retreat, it could offer a nice tailwind to markets like wheat.
Seasonal Tendencies
Below is a look at historical seasonal averages for March Chicago wheat futures VS this year’s price (black line), updated each Monday.
*Past performance is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
Commitment of Traders Snapshot
(updated on Mondays)
Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed little change in the Managed Money net position. Funds are seen to be net short about 67k futures/options contracts.
Oliver Sloup, VP & Co-Founder, Blue Line Futures
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