Grain Markets Consolidate Ahead of Tomorrow’s Report
Below are estimates for some of the key data points in tomorrow’s USDA report:
Corn
Technicals (March)
March corn futures have been able to stabilize over the last few sessions, but the Bulls still have their work cut out for them. The market has rallied back to our pivot pocket from 462-467 which remains the hurdle the Bulls want/need to overcome. If they are able to achieve a close above this pocket, we could see additional momentum via short covering propel prices back near 480.
Bias: Neutral/Bullish
Resistance: 477-481***, 493-496 1/2****
Pivot: 462-467
Support: 450**
Seasonal Tendencies
Below is a look at historical seasonal averages for March corn futures (updated each Monday) VS today’s prices (black line).
*Past performance is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
Commitment of Traders Snapshot
(updated on Mondays)
Below is a snapshot of the most recent Commitment of Traders report which showed Managed Money (Funds) were net sellers of roughly 17k futures and options contracts, expanding their net short position to 197k contracts. At the end of November, they were as short as 206.5k contracts, which was the largest net short position since 2020.
Soybeans
Technicals (March)
March soybean futures finished at a new closing low yesterday but have been able to recover some in the overnight and early morning trade. The Bulls need to see consecutive closes back above 1250-1260 to neutralize the recent bearishness. A failure to do so keeps the Bears in control of the chart. A break and close below 1230-1235 could accelerate the downward move. Needless to say, today and tomorrow could be very important in setting the tone for the first quarter.
Bias: Neutral/Bullish
Resistance: 1282-1285***, 1295-1300****, 1325-1330***
Pivot: 1250-1260
Support: 1230-1235***
Seasonal Tendencies
Below is a look at historical seasonal averages for March soybean futures VS this year’s price (black line), updated each Monday.
*Past performance is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
Commitment of Traders Snapshot
(updated on Mondays)
The most recent Commitment of Traders report showed funds were net sellers again, for the seventh consecutive week. The are seen holding a net short position of 11,629 futures and options contract, broken down that is 69,804 longs VS 81,433 shorts. This is the largest net short position since 2020.
Wheat
Technicals (March)
March Chicago wheat futures continued to hold ground near our pivot pocket in yesterday’s trade. That remains intact from 608 1/2-611. If the Bulls can achieve consecutive closes above this pocket, we could see an extension back towards the upper end of the range which comes in closer to 640. The support pocket the Bulls need to defend comes in from 591 1/2-595. A failure there would likely put the Bears back in the driver’s seat.
Bias: Neutral/Bullish
Resistance: 618-622***, 637-639**, 645-650***
Pivot: 608 1/2-611
Support: 591 1/2-595***, 570**
Seasonal Tendencies
Below is a look at historical seasonal averages for March Chicago wheat futures VS this year’s price (black line), updated each Monday.
*Past performance is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
Commitment of Traders Snapshot
(updated on Mondays)
The most recent Commitment of Traders report showed fund positioning little changed from the previous week. Managed Money are still holding a net short position to the tune of about 60k futures and options contracts. Broken down that is about 130k shorts VS about 70k longs.
Oliver Sloup, VP & Co-Founder, Blue Line Futures
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