Grain Markets Continue to Bleed Lower
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Corn
Technicals (March)
March corn futures have traded on both sides of unchanged to start the week. The two main events this week will be Wednesday’s update from CONAB and Friday’s USDA report. We would not be surprised to see a choppy trade into that report as market participants look to position. Despite our cautiously optimistic outlook, the path of least resistance keeps the Bears in the driver’s seat to start the week. We will want to see consecutive closes back above 466 1/2-470 to feel better about being more bullish.
Bias: Neutral/Bullish
Resistance: 481-484***, 493-496 1/2****
Pivot: 466 1/2-470
Support: 450**
Seasonal Tendencies
Below is a look at historical seasonal averages for March corn futures (updated each Monday) VS today’s prices (black line).
*Past performance is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
Commitment of Traders Snapshot
(updated on Mondays)
Below is a snapshot of the most recent Commitment of Traders report which showed Managed Money (Funds) were net sellers of roughly 17k futures and options contracts, expanding their net short position to 197k contracts. At the end of November, they were as short as 206.5k contracts, which was the largest net short position since 2020.
Soybeans
Technicals (March)
March soybeans are working on the sixth lower day in the last 7 sessions as Funds are officially net short. 1250-1260ish is a pocket that has acted as an inflection point over the last 9 months (as seen in chart below) The Bulls need to defend this area on a closing basis to prevent an even bigger technical breakdown. The next support pocket we see comes in from 1230-1235.
Bias: Neutral/Bullish
Resistance: 1282-1285***, 1295-1300****, 1325-1330***
Pivot: 1250-1260
Support: 1230-1235***
Seasonal Tendencies
Below is a look at historical seasonal averages for March soybean futures VS this year’s price (black line), updated each Monday.
*Past performance is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
Commitment of Traders Snapshot
(updated on Mondays)
The most recent Commitment of Traders report showed funds were net sellers again, for the seventh consecutive week. The are seen holding a net short position of 11,629 futures and options contract, broken down that is 69,804 longs VS 81,433 shorts. This is the largest net short position since 2020.
Wheat
Technicals (March)
March Chicago wheat futures are leading the way lower in the grain complex to start the week, erasing gains from last Thursday and Friday. This morning’s pullback takes us right back near the 50% retracement (middle of the range) from the November low to the December high. If the Bulls fail to hold ground here, a retest of the contract lows is not out of the question.
Bias: Neutral
Resistance: 618-622***, 637-639**, 645-650***
Pivot: 608 1/2-611
Support: 591 1/2-595***, 570**
Seasonal Tendencies
Below is a look at historical seasonal averages for March Chicago wheat futures VS this year’s price (black line), updated each Monday.
*Past performance is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
Oliver Sloup, VP & Co-Founder, Blue Line Futures
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