Grains Cool Down as Livestock Markets Ignite: A Sizzling Agricultural Shift!
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Corn
March corn futures finished the day 1/2 a cent lower to settle at 451 3/4, snapping the 5-day win streak. Throughout the week we’ve out outlined 450-452 as a pivot pocket and inflection point for the market. This pocket represents previous support as well as the breakdown point from the most recent WASDE report. The Bulls want to see a close above this pocket to spur additional technical short covering, a failure to do so keeps the Bear’s in the driver’s seat.
This morning’s weekly export sales report came in at 954,800 MT (37,588,805 bushels) for 2023/2024 were down 24%from the previous week, but up 14% from the prior 4-week average.
The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange releases weekly report showing an increase 2023-24 corn production; raised to 56.5m tons from 55m tons last week. Planting area at 7.2m ha vs 7.1m ha.
Soybean
March soybeans fell flat today after failing against resistance over the last 24 hours. At the close March futures were 17 1/4 cents lower to settle at 1223. New crop November beans finished the day 11 3/4 cents lower to 1196 1/4. The stall out at resistance and ultimate failure today does not look good from a technical perspective.
This morning’s weekly export sales report came in at 560,900 MT (20,609,541 bushels) for 2023/2024 were down 28% from the previous week, but up 6% from the prior 4-week average.
The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange releases weekly report showed an increase in soybean production for 2023-24 crop, raised to 52.5m tons vs 50m tons.
Wheat
March Chicago wheat futures continue to be the strongest of the three grains, marking another positive close. March futures settled at 612 1/4, that was up 1 1/2 cents on the day.
This morning’s weekly export sales report came in at 451,400 MT (16,586,106 bushels) for 2023/2024 were down 36% from the previous week, but up 45% from the prior 4-week average.
Cattle
Cattle futures (live and feeders) got shot out of a cannon mid-day as a strong cash trade started to develop with talk of 175 trading in TX and rumors of 177 in the North. At the close April live cattle futures were 2.35 higher to settle at 180.70, the highest close since November 8th.
March feeder cattle finished the day a whopping 4.40 higher to settle at 238.17, that was good enough for the highest settlement since November 3rd! The RSI (relative strength index) is officially in overbought territory with a reading of 72, the highest reading since we were trading near contract highs.
This morning’s weekly export sales report was strong with net sales of beef 22,400 MT for 2024.
Cattle slaughter est. 126k vs 121k a week ago.
Lean Hogs
Lean hogs staged a sharp rally in the last two sessions and were able to tack on a little more in today’s trade. At the close April futures were 52 cents higher to settle at 82.55. That puts prices right back near the top end of the range from October/November. The RSI is approaching overbought territory with a reading of 67, the highest level since June.
This morning’s weekly export sales report was pretty good, coming in at 4,100 MT for 2024.
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