Is the recent pullback a buying opportunity for wheat?

Weekly Export Inspections

• Corn: 22,543,126 bushels (in line with expectations)
• Soybeans: 25,389,308 bushels (below expectations)
• Wheat: 21,742,165 bushels (above expectations)

Black Sea Grain Deal (or No Deal)

• The deadline to renew the deal is March 18th. We anticipate it to carryon, but we wouldn’t be surprised to see some jawboning from Russia’s discontent between now and then.

Outside Markets

• Equity markets are fractionally higher, crude oil i2 $1.23 higher to $76.91, and the US Dollar is little changed as it flirts with significant resistance.

Corn

Managed Money Position

Updated each Friday with the weekly CoT Report

• As of January 31st, Managed Money were net long 219,924 futures/options. Broken down that is 285,287 longs VS 65,363 shorts.

Seasonal Trend in Play

• None

Technicals (May)

• In the overnight session, May corn futures traded to their lest price in the first half of December but have found their way back to unchanged (as of 5am CT) and have even poked their head into positive territory for a brief time. The RSI is at the lowest level sense making those lows in December, 636 3/4. There’s not a lot of significant support below there until you get towards the July 26th gap, 595 1/4-599 1/2. On the flip side, the Bulls want to achieve consecutive closes back above......Sign up for a FREE two-week trial of our daily commodity commentary for the full report!

Bias:

Previous Session Bias:

Resistance:

Pivot:

Support:

Soybeans

Managed Money Position

Updated each Friday with the weekly CoT Report

• As of January 31st, Managed Money were net long 175,504 futures/options. Broken down that is 193,385 longs VS 17,881 shorts.

Seasonal Trend in Play

• July Soybeans have trended lower from February 24th-March 15th for 12 of the last 15 years.

Technicals (May)

• The soybean market held together last week better than corn and wheat, but beans appear to be playing catchup this week as the market broke below trendline support yesterday, leading to some continuation this morning. As mentioned in yesterday’s commentary and in our interview with RFD-TV, there’s some minor support at $15.00, but the more significant support pocket doesn’t come in until 1472-1476. On the flipside, the Bulls want to......Sign up for a FREE two-week trial of our daily commodity commentary for the full report!

Bias:

Previous Session Bias:

Resistance:

Pivot:

Support:

Wheat

Managed Money Position

Updated each Friday with the weekly CoT Report

• As of January 31st, Managed Money were net short 63,628 futures/options. Broken down that is 56,327 longs VS 119,955 shorts.

Seasonal Trend

• May Chicago wheat futures have trended lower from February 7th through April 7th for 13 of the last 15 years. The average decline is roughly of 15 cents. Last year was one of the off-trend years, due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. That brought the average gain down.

Technicals (May)

• May Chicago wheat continued to bleed out yesterday, marking its lowest price since September 28th, 2021. That has brought the RSI to 29.63, which is considered to be “oversold”. Don’t confuse that with us suggesting the market cannot go lower, we’ve seen the RSI as low as 20.82 back in July. From a risk/reward trade, the Bulls may have an advantage here so long as they can......Sign up for a FREE two-week trial of our daily commodity commentary for the full report!

Bias:

Previous Session Bias:

Resistance:

Pivot:

Support:

Our daily commodity commentary covers the fundamentals and technicals for: Grains, Livestock, Energies, Metals, and More!

Pick and choose the reports you want!

https://www.bluelinefutures.com/free-trial

If you have any questions about markets, trading, or opening an account

You can email us at info@BlueLineFutures.com or call 312-278-0500

Futures trading involves a substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.