Here we go again. Brazil suffered through a scorching 3-week long heat wave and drought in April with the brief reprieve of cooler/wetter conditions in late April ending. The heat-wave occurred during the silking and pollination phase. Now we’re back to potentially the hottest first two weeks of May in over 25 years in Mato Grosso with the driest conditions in 9 years right as the Kernels are setting. Not good! CLICK FOR LARGER CHART VIEW
The next 14-days show more excessive heat/dryness in Mato Grosso while the other key growing regions of Mato Grosso do Sol and Parana are hot and wet - could be just as bad to have heat stress with wet corn roots. CLICK FOR LARGER MAP VIEW.
Even further South into Argentina the damage is already done with the coldest soybean harvest in 14 years and wettest in 25 years, some areas wettest on record. Like Brazil’s corn, soybean yields are being lowered in Argentina. May looks to continue the colder/wetter trends in Argentina with the coldest conditions in 9 years and 3rd wettest of the past 25 years, wettest since 2013. CLICK FOR LARGER CHART VIEW.
2-week outlook across all of South America. CLICK FOR LARGER MAP VIEW
Many of the challenges farmers faced in South America are coming to North America as some areas this Spring are way too wet for planting (Texas - Louisiana), about the time the U.S. crops are planted the pattern will shift to a hot/dry Summer more similar to 2012 and 2005. The critical 6-week window from mid-June to late July is expected to be the hottest/driest in 4 years and 2nd hottest in decades during our silking, pollination kernel set period. Not good. And then throw in some major hurricanes for the South and Eastern Corn Belt during harvest. So yes there are still a lot of reasons why corn prices will rally big time in July.
Plant safe folks! - Capt Kirk out...actually in since it’s raining out. ;)
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