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Corn

Technicals (May)
May corn futures have been able to defend trendline support throughout the week which has helped prices push back up against resistance and the 50-day moving average, which we haven't seen a close above since October 23rd! If the Bulls can chew through and close above here, we could see another wave of short covering take place in a similar way we saw when prices broke out above the 20-day moving average.

Bias: Bullish

Resistance: 447 1/2-450****

Pivot: 441 3/4-444 1/2

Support: 431 1/2-433 1/4*, 421-422

Fundamental Notes

• There's been a lot of talk about hot and dry weather, but in Argentina the concern over damaging rains is helping aid the relief in futures prices over the last 24 hours.
• Yesterday's EIA Ethanol report showed production at 1.046 mbpd (million barrels per day), that's nearly 5% more compared to the same period last year.
• The range of estimates for this morning's weekly export sales report comes in from 800,000-1,400,000 metric tons. Last week's was reported at 1,283,000 metric tons.

Fund Positioning

• Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed that Funds were net buyers of roughly 40.8k futures/options contracts, 37.5k of that being short covering. That trims their net short position to 255,928 contracts. For those wondering where prices are when Funds were that short on the way down, May corn was at 453 3/4 and Dec was at 477 1/4.

Seasonal Trends

(Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results)

• Below is a look at price averages for December corn, using the 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year averages. Though we believe we can see prices firm from these levels, we would urge Producers to temper the expectations, given the current balance sheet.

Continue Reading the full report at  The Squeeze Is On - Blue Line Futures

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