Market Commentary for 3/21/25
Currently, there are a lot of upcoming variables that could have a big impact on the market.
Chinese Built Ships and Port Fees
Perhaps the biggest concern facing grain trading participants is the potential $1 million fee on any Chinese built ships docking at an American port.While this could threaten US imports, it is also scaring many bulk commodity exporters.
Several trade groups, from coal to corn, will be in Washington D.C. next week to express concern that this could stifle American exports.The coal industry is already having issues lining up vessels after May.If this fee is enacted, it could make US grains less competitive globally.
Right now, US corn is the most competitively priced in the world, which is keeping a floor under prices.However, any change in shipping costs could push US grain prices lower and affect the global grain supply and feed demand.
USDA Report on March 31st
The following week, the stocks and acres report will be published on March 31st.This report will either show that stocks are higher than currently estimated and feed demand isn’t as strong as traders think, which could send prices lower.Or it will show that stocks are getting tighter, which could help push prices higher.
While the stocks estimate has more impact on old crop values, the planted acres number affects new crop values.Realistically, the question isn’t “if” US farmers will plant more corn in 2025, it’s “how much more” will they plant.Right now, the trade is anticipating around 94 million acres.
April 2nd Tariffs
Then the market will watch how the new tariffs will be enacted. From there the market will watch to see how other countries hit back at the US, or whether they will continue to buy US commodities.
There is concern that tariffs could incite global economic constriction.This could lead to less demand for ag commodities moving forward.
US Planting Weather
As always, weather is the great unknown.The delayed planting pace of 2019 is still in the back of everyone’s mind.A fast-planting pace increases the chances of more corn getting planted.However, a slow-planting pace likely decreases the chances of increased corn acres which could lead to higher prices.
Brazilian Weather
Brazil’s second corn crop has grown significantly over the last 12 years.Most of that second crop is exported, and it now rivals the size of what the US exports.
Brazil’s second corn crop, which was planted in February, will go through pollination in May. The weather at that point will be critical for yield potential and how much will ultimately be exported to compete against US corn.
Bottomline
There is a lot of uncertainty in the market right now.If stock estimates are tightened, and tariffs are delayed or removed, and the tax on Chinese built ships doesn’t happen, then corn prices have a lot of upside potential.
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