Farm Journal's
Ag Economists
Monthly Monitor
A vetted group of agricultural economists provide a monthly read on the U.S. ag economy, tracked over time, providing a gauge on important industry drivers.
As fertilizer prices emerge as a top threat to profitability, analysts highlight structural supply issues and global trade shifts that leave little room for price relief despite growing domestic frustration.
The December Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor shows the farm economy will likely stay strained into 2026. As crops face tight margins, biofuels policy — especially E15 and biomass-based diesel — could influence recovery.
With a New World screwworm case now less than 200 miles from the U.S. border, Seth Meyer says the growing threat adds risk and uncertainty for cattle producers making critical calving-season decisions.
Research and polling suggests the money will go toward operating costs, paying down debt, and not be eyed for machinery purchases.
China’s pledge to buy 12 MMT of U.S. soybeans is facing questions over timing, storage capacity and price competitiveness, leaving markets uncertain whether the full promise can be met before year-end.
USDA says anticipated trade aid could be announced the first week of December, but ag economists are split on whether payments would provide relief or worsen lingering risks such as high input costs and market distortions.
Producers nationwide face thin or negative margins, rising input costs and economic pressure not seen in decades — forcing some to make the tough choice of whether they can afford to keep farming.
Although warning signs are emerging, economists say record-high beef prices could hold for up to two more years. Tight supplies and strong demand continue to drive the market, but economists and producers are apprehensive with talks of reopening the border.
Here’s how accelerated consolidation could change the way agriculture looks in the future.